In the aftermath of a challenging 2025 NFL season, the buzz around Las Vegas Raiders fans is all about Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza potentially joining the team in April's draft. Yet, amid the excitement, it's easy to overlook that Geno Smith remains under contract for the next two seasons.
Smith finds himself in a situation reminiscent of Gardner Minshew's last offseason. The writing seemed clear on Minshew’s future in Las Vegas, and indeed, the Raiders eventually moved on after just one year. But what if Smith stays put next season?
Admittedly, the idea might sound far-fetched. Smith led the league with 17 interceptions, publicly blamed others for team issues, and had some less-than-flattering interactions with Raider Nation.
It's likely he wants out, too. However, Ted Nguyen from The Athletic recently laid out a scenario where Smith might stick around.
Nguyen's Analysis on Geno Smith's Potential Return
In a recent analysis, The Athletic identified Alex Cappa as a cut candidate for the Raiders. Fans might see Smith as the more obvious choice, but Nguyen offers another perspective.
"Geno Smith could be a cut candidate too, but new head coach Klint Kubiak said he took the Seattle OC job so that he could work with Smith," Nguyen noted. "There’s a chance Kubiak would be interested in a reunion with Smith in Vegas, possibly using him as a bridge quarterback for Fernando Mendoza."
Smith doesn’t seem like the type to embrace a bridge role. He joined Las Vegas expecting to be the starter, and nothing from last season suggests he’s ready to relinquish that position.
This doesn’t imply the Raiders shouldn't have a veteran presence to guide Mendoza or serve as a backup if needed. Kristopher Knox of Bleacher Report suggests a more practical plan.
"Las Vegas is widely expected to take Indiana's Fernando Mendoza first overall in April's draft. The Raiders have a potential bridge QB in Aidan O'Connell, and Smith has a 2026 base salary of $26.5 million."
Paying nearly $30 million for a bridge quarterback is indeed a hefty price. The Atlanta Falcons faced a similar predicament with Kirk Cousins and Michael Penix Jr., which didn’t yield a playoff berth even in a struggling NFC South.
Nguyen, however, offers a different angle, suggesting Smith’s return might not be as improbable as it seems.
"Though Geno Smith is coming off a tough season, there aren’t many quarterbacks who could have thrived in last year’s offense. Kubiak joined the Seahawks to work with Smith and might believe he can unlock Smith’s potential with a more quarterback-friendly system. Smith still has the mobility and arm talent to succeed."
Smith must cut down on turnovers, but Nguyen points out that Sam Darnold had a similar issue last season. Darnold threw 14 interceptions compared to Smith’s 17 but had a higher explosive pass rate. Smith’s was 13.8 percent, ranking 16th in the league.
While the offensive struggles in Las Vegas were significant, Smith’s individual performance was a big part of the problem. He often held onto the ball too long, missed open targets, and didn’t leverage his mobility enough. It’s not all on him, but blaming the offensive setup alone misses the mark.
Smith’s time in Las Vegas hasn’t been ideal, and the ongoing criticism from fans likely took a toll. A fresh start seems like the best path forward for both Smith and the Raiders. It’s time to clear the air and create a positive environment for Mendoza’s arrival.