Tua Tagovailoa’s time in Miami appears to be nearing its conclusion - and the ending isn’t exactly unfolding like the Dolphins had hoped. After being benched ahead of Week 17 against the Bengals, the former Pro Bowl quarterback’s future with the franchise is murky at best, and the road ahead is filled with financial and football complications.
Let’s start with the numbers. In 14 starts this season, Tagovailoa completed 67.7% of his passes for 2,660 yards and 20 touchdowns.
On the surface, that’s a respectable stat line. But the glaring issue?
He leads the league with 15 interceptions, and the regression from his earlier promise has been hard to ignore. This isn’t just a down year - it’s a continuation of a troubling trend that’s stretched over the past two seasons.
Now, if the Dolphins decide to move on, it won’t come cheap. Tagovailoa carries a massive dead cap hit of $92 million if released or traded before June 1.
Post-June 1, that number drops to $67 million - still a significant chunk of change for any franchise to swallow. That financial burden alone could force Miami to think twice about cutting ties, but with the team benching him in a critical stretch of the season, the writing might already be on the wall.
So, where could Tagovailoa land if he does hit the market?
Four teams have been floated as potential suitors: the Arizona Cardinals, Las Vegas Raiders, Minnesota Vikings, and Los Angeles Rams. Each has its own quarterback questions heading into the offseason, but none are slam-dunk fits.
Arizona’s situation with Kyler Murray remains uncertain, and a split feels more likely by the week. Still, swapping one high-priced quarterback for another doesn’t exactly solve the Cardinals’ long-term issues.
Over in Las Vegas, Geno Smith hasn't panned out the way the Raiders hoped, but bringing in Tagovailoa - with his contract and turnover concerns - might not offer a clear upgrade. Minnesota, meanwhile, is still evaluating rookie J.J.
McCarthy, but if the Vikings decide to pivot quickly, they’ll likely want a more stable option than what Tua’s shown lately.
The Rams are a more intriguing possibility. With Matthew Stafford still under center and Sean McVay calling the shots, Los Angeles could offer Tagovailoa a chance to reset - learning behind a veteran in a quarterback-friendly system.
But again, the contract looms large. For a team already managing a delicate cap situation, taking on Tua’s deal would be a tough sell.
The reality is, a trade might be difficult to swing. Tagovailoa’s value has taken a hit, and few teams are going to line up to absorb that kind of financial commitment for a quarterback who’s struggled with consistency and decision-making. A release could open the door for a fresh start elsewhere, but even then, the Dolphins would be eating a sizable cap hit without getting anything in return.
There’s no easy answer here. Miami is at a crossroads - either ride it out with Tua and hope for a bounce-back, or take the financial hit and start over at quarterback. For Tagovailoa, the next chapter of his career may depend not just on who needs a QB, but who believes they can fix what’s gone wrong.
One thing is clear: the situation is fluid, and the stakes are high for both sides.