Kentuckys Alabama Upset Hopes Hinge On One Defensive Test

Can Kentucky's defensive adjustments against third downs provide the edge needed to pull off a major upset against Alabama?

Kentucky’s path to an upset of No. 12 Alabama starts with one thing above all else: getting the defense off the field.

That was the central answer when the first question in this week’s “Ask Mark Anything” asked what has to happen for UK to have a real shot Saturday at Kroger Field. There are plenty of moving parts in a game like this, but the biggest one is whether Kentucky can keep the Crimson Tide from staying on schedule.

That matters because Alabama quarterback Keelon Russell will be making his first road start as a collegian. Kentucky’s best chance to make that feel uncomfortable is to force the Tide into obvious passing downs, and that means avoiding the easy stuff on early downs.

The more UK can prevent third-and-short, the better its odds become. That’s the lane where a defense can dictate terms.

It’s also where Alabama can settle in if Kentucky lets it.

Youngstown State gave a glimpse of the issue in Kentucky’s 45-13 win last week. The Wildcats handled the game, but the Penguins still went 8 of 15 on third-down conversions.

The catch was how many of those chances came with little distance needed. Youngstown State never converted on third down longer than third-and-5, but it did move the chains five times on third-and-1 and third-and-2.

That’s exactly the kind of pattern Kentucky cannot afford to hand Alabama.

The column also turned to Mark Stoops and the way his tenure is viewed now. The frustration from some Kentucky fans, especially online, is not hard to trace.

Stoops’ overall run was the best by a Kentucky football coach since the 1950s, but the finish was rough. From 2018 through 2021, UK went 33-17.

Then came the final four seasons from 2022 through 2025: 7-6, 7-6, 4-8 and 5-7.

Those back-to-back 7-6 seasons were seen by many fans as underachieving, and the last two years were simply poor. That left a lingering wave of disappointment around the end of the Stoops era.

The NCAA also later vacated 10 wins from UK’s 10-3 season in 2021, adding another sour note. Even so, the view offered here is that time will soften some of that anger and leave more room for appreciation of what Stoops accomplished at Kentucky.

A question about the press box brought a lighter answer, though with a familiar sports-media maxim attached. The standard rule is still “no cheering in the press box,” so there’s no scenario in which media members would storm the field after a result.

On a personal level, though, the bar for happiness is much simpler: reliable wireless Internet, a stat monitor that keeps up with the game and a coach who gets to the postgame news conference on time. That, the response said, is enough to feel like metaphorically “storm the field.”

The final question dealt with the Mark Mitchell situation and what it did to Mark Pope’s standing with Kentucky fans. The main source of anger, as described here, was aimed at SEC commissioner Greg Sankey because the league did not waive its “no intra-league transfers outside the normal portal window” rule in light of Mitchell’s unusual circumstances. Still, some UK fans viewed the late push to add a fifth-year player whose eligibility depends on the legal system as a sign that Pope’s staff had not recruited strongly enough before that point.

And because Kentucky fans want the men’s program back at elite level so badly, even the sense that UK’s ceiling for 2026-27 is lower without Mitchell leaves a mark on Pope’s standing with Big Blue Nation.

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Alabama enters with a fresh face under center in Keelon Russell, and his first start gave the Crimson Tide plenty to build on. Kentucky will have to sort through that on the fly while trying to keep the game from getting away from it early, which is where the market has already started to lean in one direction. The numbers will matter, of course, but for Kentucky the bigger question is whether this is the kind of spot where it can hang around long enough to make the afternoon interesting deep into the fourth quarter. [Read more 🡒]