Kentucky’s Comeback Win Over LSU Could Be the Spark Their Season Needs
Kentucky’s rollercoaster season found a much-needed high point Tuesday night in Baton Rouge. Down by 18 on the road, the Wildcats clawed their way back and stunned LSU at the buzzer-a win that wasn’t just thrilling in the moment, but potentially pivotal come Selection Sunday.
Let’s be clear: this wasn’t just a feel-good win. It was a resume-builder.
As of now, Kentucky sits at No. 34 in the NET rankings-unchanged from the day before-but the real story is what happens to LSU’s NET moving forward. The Tigers dropped from No. 46 to No. 51 after the loss, and for this to remain a valuable Quad 1 win, LSU has to stay in the top 75.
So yeah, Kentucky fans might want to keep an eye on how the Tigers finish out their season.
Quad 1 Watch: The Numbers That Matter
With the LSU win, Kentucky improves to 2-5 in Quad 1 games. That’s a start, but with nine more Quad 1 opportunities left, the Cats need to capitalize.
That includes games against teams like Tennessee (twice), Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Florida, Auburn, and Texas A&M. The margin for error is razor-thin, and every win-or loss-carries weight.
There’s also some fluidity in the Quad system. Georgia, for example, dropped ten spots in the NET after a home loss to Ole Miss, falling to No.
- Indiana sits at No.
- If either team climbs into the top 30, Kentucky’s wins over them could shift from Quad 2 to Quad 1, which would give the resume another boost.
On the flip side, there’s that loss to Missouri. Right now, it’s a Quad 2 blemish thanks to the Tigers’ NET ranking of 64. But if Missouri slips out of the top 75, that loss drops into Quad 3 territory-something Kentucky can’t afford if they want to stay on the right side of the bubble.
The Path to March: What’s Left on the Schedule
With just under two months until Selection Sunday, every game matters. Here’s how Kentucky’s remaining schedule breaks down by quadrant:
- Quad 1: 2-5 (9 games remaining)
- Quad 2: 1-1 (4 games remaining)
- Quad 3: 1-0 (1 game remaining)
- Quad 4: 7-0 (no games remaining)
The next test? A road trip to Knoxville to face Tennessee.
KenPom gives Kentucky just a 31% chance in that one. It’s the first of several high-stakes matchups that could swing the season in either direction.
Here’s how the rest of Kentucky’s schedule looks, sorted by KenPom’s win probability:
Likely Wins (≥65%)
- **Ole Miss (Jan.
24, Home)** - 79%, Quad 3
- **Oklahoma (Feb.
4, Home)** - 79%, Quad 2
- **Texas (Jan.
21, Home)** - 68%, Quad 2
- **Georgia (Feb.
17, Home)** - 66%, Quad 2
- **South Carolina (Feb.
24, Away)** - 65%, Quad 2
Toss-Ups (36-64%)
- **Tennessee (Feb.
7, Home)** - 56%, Quad 1
- **Texas A&M (Mar.
3, Away)** - 50%, Quad 1
- **Vanderbilt (Feb.
28, Home)** - 44%, Quad 1
- **Florida (Mar.
7, Home)** - 43%, Quad 1
Unlikely Wins (≤35%)
- **Tennessee (Jan.
17, Away)** - 31%, Quad 1
- **Arkansas (Jan.
31, Away)** - 34%, Quad 1
- **Vanderbilt (Jan.
27, Away)** - 23%, Quad 1
- **Florida (Feb.
14, Away)** - 22%, Quad 1
- **Auburn (Feb.
21, Away)** - 40%, Quad 1
The roadmap is clear: take care of business in the games you’re supposed to win, steal a few of those toss-ups, and maybe pull off an upset or two. The SEC Tournament will be another opportunity to build the resume, but Kentucky can’t afford to wait until then to get hot.
The Projections: Where Things Stand
If KenPom’s current projections hold, Kentucky would finish the regular season at 17-14 overall and 8-10 in the SEC. That would likely land them as an 11-seed, just barely sneaking into the NCAA Tournament and heading to Dayton for the First Four.
BartTorvik’s model is even less optimistic, projecting just five more wins the rest of the way. That would likely put Kentucky squarely on the bubble, if not outside looking in.
But here’s the thing: last night’s win changed the tone. It gave this team a shot of momentum and a reminder that they can dig deep when it matters. Malachi Moreno and Adou Thiero were massive in the comeback, and the team showed a level of grit that’s been missing at times this year.
Bottom Line
This Kentucky team still has a lot of work to do. But the buzzer-beater in Baton Rouge wasn’t just a highlight-it was a lifeline.
With nine Quad 1 games still on the table, the Wildcats have the opportunities. Now it’s about consistency, execution, and making sure Tuesday night wasn’t a one-off.
Selection Sunday is 59 days away. The margin is thin, the stakes are high, and the path is there. It’s up to Kentucky to walk it.