Kentucky’s outlook has taken a noticeable jump after the South Alabama win, and ESPN’s College Football Power Index is now treating the Wildcats like a team with a real path to a solid season.
Last week, Kentucky was already floating around the bowl picture in projections from the Texas Bowl to the Gator Bowl, the Music City Bowl and the Gasparilla Bowl. But ESPN’s FPI still had the Wildcats at 6.1-5.9 with a 64.4 percent shot to reach a bowl. That changed once Kentucky cleared the six-win mark with the South Alabama victory.
The bigger swing came in the playoff odds. Kentucky now has a 4.0 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff, and if you look at the updated projection, the numbers get even more interesting: 6.9-5.1 and an 84.3 percent chance to go bowling.
The model also has Kentucky projected to win seven games now.
That rise came after Will Stein’s upset win in Columbia, though the analytics did not exactly go wild over it. The Wildcats moved up only two spots in the FPI, landing at No. 34 nationally and No. 13 in the SEC.
Only South Carolina at No. 38, Vanderbilt at No. 53 and Arkansas at No. 65 are behind Kentucky in the league rankings.
Still, the playoff conversation is at least technically alive. Kentucky’s odds to make the College Football Playoff sit at 8.5 percent, and the Wildcats even have a 0.2 percent chance to win the SEC and reach the national championship game.
It is still a long shot, but Stein’s first season in Lexington has not closed the door on anything yet as of Sunday, October 4, with the season nearing its midpoint. Kentucky was picked to finish No. 14 in the SEC over the summer, ahead of only Mississippi State and Arkansas, and that prediction is looking shaky now.
As for the rest of the schedule, this is how the FPI views the Wildcats’ upcoming opponents:
In Other News...
Will Stein's Late Gamble Put Kentucky Fans On Edge
Kentuckys 35-34 overtime win at South Carolina came with all the chaos youd expect from a road game that turned into the largest comeback in program history. Will Stein spent much of his postgame press conference walking through how it all unfolded, from the defensive strain that made the finish feel so precarious to the way key players helped the Wildcats dig out of a hole and keep the game alive.
Stein also owned the clock-management mistake late in regulation, a rare public slip in a night filled with high-leverage decisions. The biggest one came in overtime, when he chose to go for the win with a two-point conversion instead of extending the game, a gamble he tied to how worn down his defense had become as Kentucky dealt with injuries and a game that kept asking for one more answer. [Read more 🡒]
Kenny Minchey Just Delivered A Kentucky Road Performance Fans Rarely See
Kenny Mincheys night in Columbia started slowly, but it ended with Kentucky leaving South Carolina with a 35-34 overtime win and a quarterback performance the program has not seen often on the road. Minchey settled in as the game went on, completing 28 of 41 passes for 272 yards and three touchdowns while helping the Wildcats bounce back from early trouble and stay in the thick of the SEC race.
The bigger significance may be what Minchey just did in a road conference setting. He became the first Kentucky quarterback since 2001 to post those passing numbers in an SEC road game without throwing an interception, a rare blend of volume, efficiency and poise away from home. With the win, Kentucky moved to 4-1 overall and 2-1 in league play, and it now has a quarterback performance worth circling as the schedule gets tougher. [Read more 🡒]
Kentuckys Gutsy Win Left The Wildcats With A Worrying LSU Problem
Kentuckys overtime escape against South Carolina came with the kind of toll that can change a week in a hurry. The Wildcats survived 35-34, but the win was shadowed by a string of injuries, with running back Jason Patterson, linebacker Antwan Smith and defensive back Jaden Smith all leaving the game hurt. Jaden Smiths injury was described as severe, turning what should have been a momentum-building finish into a far more uneasy evaluation of the roster.
Coach Will Stein said several other players were already unavailable before kickoff, adding another layer of concern as Kentucky shifts its focus to LSU. The Wildcats know they earned something valuable by pulling out a gutty overtime victory, but the challenge now is figuring out how much of that lineup will be intact when the next test arrives. [Read more 🡒]