Kentucky’s passing game has been productive this fall, but there’s still a clear hole in it: the Wildcats haven’t unlocked the deep ball.
Kenny Minchey has piled up the kind of numbers that usually put a quarterback near the top of the SEC. He’s sitting just outside the FBS top 10 in completion percentage at 69.9, ranks third in the conference with nearly 21 completions per game, and has thrown only two interceptions all season. Among SEC quarterbacks, only Missouri’s Austin Simmons has attempted more passes than Minchey’s 266 while also throwing just two picks.
But the efficiency has come with a catch. A big chunk of it has been built on short throws.
According to Pro Football Focus, Minchey has completed 80.8% of his passes between 0 and 9 yards, going 84 for 104 on short throws. He’s been even sharper behind the line of scrimmage, hitting 94.4% of his screen passes, connecting on 67 of 71.
Once the ball travels farther downfield, the picture changes fast.
Minchey is 24 for 42 on passes between 10 and 19 yards, a 57.1% clip. On throws of 20 yards or more, he’s just 11 of 31, which works out to 35.5%.
Only three of his completions this season have gone for 40 yards or more. Nationally, 15 quarterbacks already have at least 10 completions of 40-plus yards, including SEC leader Arch Manning and Louisville’s Lincoln Kienholz.
That doesn’t mean the long ball is easy for anyone. The deeper the throw, the tougher the window. Defenders have more time to react, and the margin for error shrinks.
Kentucky’s receivers haven’t been spotless on those chances, either. The Wildcats are charged with two drops, and the most glaring came when freshman wide receiver Kenny Darby dropped a walk-in touchdown at Texas A&M. Still, Minchey hasn’t consistently done himself favors on those throws.
On his 31 deep attempts, he has a Turnover Worthy Play Rate of 9.4%. PFF defines that as “a pass that has a high percentage chance to be intercepted or a poor job of taking care of the ball and fumbling.”
That mark ranks 30th nationally and is the second-worst in the SEC. Only Arkansas’ KJ Jackson has been riskier at 11.6%.
The broader grading tells the same story. Minchey’s 66.1 PFF grade on deep throws is tied for 130th among the 156 FBS quarterbacks evaluated by the site. Among SEC passers, only Auburn’s Byrum Brown at 58.9 and Jackson at 52.5 graded worse.
The production chart backs up the eye test, too. Minchey has 80 completions of 10 or more yards, tied for fifth in the SEC. He’s tied for fourth with 28 completions of 20-plus yards, tied for seventh with 12 completions of 30-plus yards, tied for 11th with three completions of 40-plus yards, and tied for 11th with one completion of 50-plus yards.
Kentucky’s offense has found another way to create chunk gains, though. Wide receiver Kenny Darby and tight end Willie Rodriguez have carried the load after the catch, and it shows in the numbers. Darby leads the team with 309 yards after the catch, Rodriguez is right behind him at 260, and no other Wildcat is above 150.
So the task is straightforward: Minchey needs to hit more deep throws if Kentucky wants defenses to respect that part of the field.
That challenge comes into focus this week against Florida, with kickoff set for 6:15 p.m. Nov. 14 at Kroger Field.
After last week’s 34-6 loss at Tennessee, Kentucky coach Will Stein said he isn’t necessarily looking for the offense to live off deep shots.
“I think we have run-and-catch opportunities,” he said after the game. “We’ve got to break some tackles. I think explosives happen not just by deep balls - like everybody wants to see.”
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