The College Football Playoff picture has Kentucky in a place nobody would have predicted a few weeks ago, and the Wildcats keep popping up in the latest projections.
CBS Sports’ John Talty slotted Kentucky at No. 11 on Monday, which would send the Wildcats into a first-round matchup with No. 6 Indiana.
First-year coach Will Stein has Kentucky moving from a 5-7 season a year ago to a 5-1 start, and Talty called Stein the early frontrunner for Coach of the Year. CBS still isn’t fully sold - the model gives Kentucky just 9.2% odds right now - but that number would jump to 19% with a win over Oklahoma.
Previous: NR
If Kentucky got past Indiana, the path would go through No. 3 Miami in the quarterfinals, with the winner of No.
2 Ohio State, No. 7 Texas, and No.
10 Utah waiting on the other side.
ESPN has Kentucky in the mix too. Heather Dinich had the Wildcats at No. 12 in her projections on Sunday, then moved them this morning to the “wrong side of the bubble” in her CFP Bubble Watch. She also pointed to the oddity of Kentucky, Indiana, and UCLA showing up together in the playoff conversation.
This is not a college basketball bubble watch. And yet, Indiana, Kentucky and UCLA appearing in the same sentence might make you do a double take. (Oh, and 4-1 Duke is the reigning ACC champ.)
You’re still in the right place, college football fans, and so are Kentucky and UCLA - at least for now.
Dinich’s ESPN colleague Pamela Maldonado took a closer look at Kentucky’s case in another piece, comparing the Wildcats with Iowa, UCLA, and USC. Her evaluation didn’t pull punches. She said Kentucky’s offense and defense don’t line up cleanly with the playoff buzz around the team.
Of this group, Kentucky is the team where I’d say the car is better than what’s under the hood. It’s clean and has a nice shine to it.
There’s some cracks underneath the paint. Kentucky has forced 12 takeaways.
Win the turnover battle, you win games.
But there’s a fragile edge to it. Kentucky is a run-heavy offense that is converting 27% of its third downs, and the defense has real issues across the board.
The Wildcats grade outside the top 80 against the run, in tackling, and in coverage, with a pass rush that’s merely average. Once opponents get into the red zone, they’ve found easy points, as Kentucky has allowed touchdowns on 18 of 25 trips.
That formula has already shown up in the results. The South Carolina and LSU wins both came by one point in overtime, and Kentucky needed two turnovers in each of those games. Alabama exposed the other side of the equation, rolling to a 45-17 win while Kentucky managed just 209 yards without the takeaways to tilt the game.
Now the schedule keeps asking more questions. Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Missouri are all road games, while Vanderbilt, Florida, and Louisville come to Kentucky.
The resume is there to keep building, but the underlying profile still looks shaky. The Wildcats have the kind of rushing attack that plays, yet the whole operation leans hard on ball security, takeaways, and surviving tight games.
In Other News...
Kentuckys New SEC FPI Spot Says Plenty After The LSU Win
ESPNs latest Football Power Index update offered another snapshot of where Kentucky stands after its Week 6 win over LSU, and the numbers say the Wildcats are still very much part of the SEC middle class fight. The rankings, which adjust to recent results and project the rest of the season, showed a league landscape that remains crowded, with teams such as Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Auburn, South Carolina, Mississippi State, Florida, Texas A&M and Missouri all clustered in the conversation around Kentucky.
For Kentucky, the update matters because it reflects more than just a single win. It is a reminder that the LSU result changed the way the computers view the Wildcats, but the SEC race is still tight enough that every weekly shift in FPI carries weight. The next step is whether Kentucky can turn that bump into something more lasting as the season moves deeper into league play. [Read more 🡒]
Kentucky Defense Is Stuck Waiting On A Massive Alex Afari Decision
Alex Afaris status has turned into one of the more consequential off-field issues hanging over Kentucky as the season moves along. The linebacker remains unable to play while legal rulings around temporary restraining orders and subsequent court decisions continue to sort out whether he can be cleared again, leaving the Wildcats in a holding pattern at a spot where they could use help.
The Kentucky Court of Appeals already ruled that a temporary restraining order is just that, temporary, and the next round of hearings in Kentucky and at the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 10th Circuit could shape the answer from here. With injuries already thinning the linebacker room, Afaris potential return matters even more than it otherwise would, which is why this one is worth watching closely until the legal process finally gives Kentucky some clarity. [Read more 🡒]
Kentucky Special Teams Just Created A New Oklahoma Talking Point
Kentuckys special teams turned into a real storyline in the win over LSU, with Brock Coffman flipping field position in a hurry on a 55-yard punt return for a touchdown that helped the Wildcats seize the lead. There was more than one moving part, too, as Wilson Berry made his first start at punter this season and averaged 40.3 yards per kick, while Adam Zouagui came through with key field goals even though the day was not spotless.
Will Steins postgame message made the current setup sound pretty straightforward heading into the next game. Berry is expected to stay in the starting role at punter, and there are no planned changes at kicker, which means Kentucky will carry the same special teams personnel forward for now. Still, after a performance that created momentum in a tight spot, it is fair to wonder whether those jobs are as settled as they look. [Read more 🡒]