As Kentucky continues to find its rhythm on the court under Mark Pope, there's a growing concern off it - and it's centered squarely on recruiting.
Right now, the Wildcats don’t have a single high school commitment for the class of 2026. That’s not just unusual for a program of Kentucky’s stature - it’s borderline unheard of in the modern recruiting era. And the one name that seemed poised to break the drought, 5-star wing Christian Collins, now appears to be slipping away.
For a while, Kentucky looked like the frontrunner for Collins. The buzz was real.
He’d taken a serious look at the Wildcats, and there was even talk that things were moving toward the finish line, with NIL conversations reportedly in the works. But in recent months, that momentum has cooled - and now, it may be gone altogether.
On Tuesday, recruiting insider Joe Tipton flipped his prediction from Kentucky to USC, signaling a major shift in Collins' recruitment. According to Tipton, USC has been the most consistent presence in Collins’ recruitment from the jump, and now, with Eric Musselman at the helm, the Trojans are charging hard down the stretch. Tipton didn’t mince words: USC is “in the driver’s seat.”
He wasn’t alone. Kentucky-based recruiting analyst Jacob Polacheck also changed his prediction to USC, further reinforcing the sense that the Wildcats are no longer leading the race.
This would be a tough pill to swallow for Kentucky fans. Collins is a consensus 5-star prospect and ranked as high as No. 3 overall in the 2026 class by Rivals.
He’s the kind of player who can change the trajectory of a recruiting class - or, in this case, define one. Losing him to a rising USC program, especially after once being viewed as the heavy favorite, is a major setback.
And unless something changes soon with a couple of other top targets - namely Tyran Stokes, who’s reportedly leaning toward Kansas, or Caleb Holt, who’s trending toward Alabama - Kentucky could be staring at a recruiting class with zero high school signees. That’s not just rare. That’s unprecedented for a blueblood.
The good news? In today’s college basketball landscape, high school recruiting isn’t the only path to building a contender. The transfer portal has changed the game, and Kentucky’s staff will have to lean into that reality if the high school misses keep piling up.
The Wildcats still have a solid core to build around if they can retain key pieces like Collin Chandler, Malachio Moreno, and Kam Williams. But if Pope wants to keep Kentucky in the national conversation - not just in February, but into March and beyond - he’ll need to thread the needle between portal additions and roster continuity.
The recruiting scoreboard might not look great right now, but this story’s far from over.