ESPN’s preseason simulation machine found a path to a Kentucky national title, and it came with plenty of chaos along the way.
Using the outlet’s SP+ projections, Bill Connelly ran through a million possible outcomes for the upcoming college football season, and one of them had the Wildcats doing something nobody would mistake for ordinary. In simulation No. 883,870, Kentucky tied with three other schools for the top spot in the SEC, reached the College Football Playoff, and then beat reigning champion Indiana in the title game.
Connelly noted the absurdity of the setup this way: “Four-way tie atop the SEC, including 8-1 Kentucky,” Connelly said of simulation No. 883,870.
“Four-way tie atop the Big Ten. Four-way tie atop the Big 12.
Five-way tie atop the ACC, including 6-2 North Carolina. We live in an era of intricate tiebreakers.
Indiana masters this universe with another trip to the national title game … but is tripped up by mighty Kentucky.”
For Kentucky, the preseason numbers are not exactly flattering. ESPN’s SP+ gives the Wildcats a 1.0 percent chance to win the SEC, which ranks second-to-last in the conference, ahead of only Mississippi State at 0.7 percent.
Here’s how the conference title odds stack up in SP+:
Georgia (21.0%)
Texas (12.5%)
LSU (12.0%)
Texas A&M (9.5%)
Oklahoma (6.7%)
Alabama (6.6%)
Missouri (6.3%)
Tennessee (6.1%)
Ole Miss (5.2%)
Florida (3.8%)
Auburn (3.1%)
South Carolina (2.6%)
Vanderbilt (1.7%)
Arkansas (1.3%)
Kentucky (1.0%)
Mississippi State (0.7%)
The national title picture, according to SP+, is led by Ohio State at 14.2 percent, followed by Oregon at 11.1 percent and Notre Dame at 10.4 percent. Georgia sits next at 7.4 percent, then Indiana at 7.1 percent, Texas Tech at 4.6 percent, Miami at 4.4 percent, LSU at 4.1 percent, Texas at 3.6 percent and Texas A&M at 2.9 percent.
Kentucky also did not clear the 5 percent threshold for CFP odds among SEC teams, joining Arkansas and Mississippi State in that group.
Still, one simulation is enough to keep the dream alive. And in this one, Kentucky went from long shot to champion.
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