The national consensus on Kentucky’s trip to No. 9 Texas A&M is pretty clear: the Aggies are the pick, but not everyone is ready to slam the door on the Wildcats.
After Kentucky pushed Alabama for nearly three quarters last week before fading badly, this matchup has drawn a mix of respect and skepticism from around the college football world. Some analysts think the Wildcats can hang around early. Others see Texas A&M’s defense and Kentucky’s offensive issues as a bad combination in College Station.
On3’s JD PicKell is taking Texas A&M to win, but he expects Kentucky to stay inside the +16.5 spread. He thinks the game could still be tight when the fourth quarter arrives.
Greg McElroy was more direct on his “Always College Football” podcast, backing the Aggies 27-13. He pointed to Kentucky’s third-down problems, Texas A&M’s uneven offense, and Jay Bateman’s familiarity with Mike Elko’s defense as the main factors.
McElroy said, “Question one, can Kentucky be better on third down? 18 percent right now.
That’s where they’re at from a conversion standpoint, and they’re going against a defense that hasn’t allowed a third and long conversion all season. Mike Elko is 27 and 2 when he holds you under 125 rushing yards.
He is just 7 and 14 when you get to 150. So what does that tell you?
Kentucky’s got to run the football. They absolutely have to run the football.
Question two, is Texas A&M actually this good? Because they scored 48 last week.
They only gained 385. Two of those touchdowns came from the defense.
So I take away a couple of pick sixes, some short fields, and maybe the offense isn’t quite where it needs to be. They didn’t even gain 385, even 255 or whatever it was they gained.
It wasn’t a lot. So can the offense do it?
That’s a question that I have going forward.
Then question three, does Jay Bateman have the answers to the A&M test? Because A&M’s defense has been excellent for a really long time.
They’ve been really, really good. But Kentucky, they’re going to shift, they’re going to motion, they’re going to use unbalanced formations.
There’s nobody that has a better understanding with how Mike Elko will try to attack a opposing offense than Jay Bateman, who’s shared the defensive responsibilities with him last year. So keep an eye on that.
His familiarity could be very beneficial in this matchup.
I’m taking Texas A&M to win the game 27-13.”
ESPN’s Best Bets crew also leaned Aggies, with Pamela Maldonado and Mark Zinno highlighting Texas A&M’s first-half -9.5 spread as one of the week’s strongest plays. Their angle is built around Kentucky’s collapse against Alabama, when the Wildcats were outscored 32-0 after halftime.
They also pointed to Texas A&M’s defense, which has allowed just 76 rushing yards through the first two weeks, and to Kentucky giving up four sacks to Alabama. Their thinking was simple: if Kentucky can’t stay within 10 in the first half, a comeback feels out of reach.
Bill Connelly saw the matchup as a possible mirror image of both teams’ previous games. Kentucky hung around Alabama for about 2½ quarters before losing by 28.
Texas A&M, meanwhile, beat Arizona State by 28 after trailing 24-20 and getting pushed around late. Connelly noted that A&M’s defense looks more aggressive, and maybe more vulnerable to explosive plays, than last season’s version, but Kentucky still hasn’t shown much big-play ability.
David Hale offered one stat that cuts both ways. Texas A&M quarterback Marcel Reed has thrown at least one interception in 13 of his 17 career starts against Power 4 opponents, with two of the clean games coming against Arkansas’ defense, which Hale said “shouldn’t really count.” On the other side, Kentucky has lost 21 of its past 26 against Power 4 competition and has scored 21 points or fewer in 20 of those games.
Justin Williams of The Athletic ranked Kentucky at Texas A&M as his seventh-best game of Week 3, behind LSU at Ole Miss, which he had at No. 1.
He wrote that Kentucky’s first half against Alabama could be either a fluke or a sign of what the Wildcats are capable of, while Texas A&M’s own win over Arizona State showed both danger and resilience. Williams also noted that with LSU looming next, the Aggies can’t afford to look past Kentucky.
CBS Sports’ panel was unanimous on the winner, with every member picking Texas A&M straight up, though the group split on whether the Aggies would cover the 16.5-point spread. Bill Bender of The Sporting News also went with Texas A&M, but he called for a 31-17 final and said the Aggies would fail to cover. He wrote that Kentucky can’t repeat the turnover problems it had against Alabama and has to find a running game behind Kenny Minchey.
The Week 3 SEC prediction roundups from SEC Mike and Cousin Shane also included the matchup, adding to the long list of national takes on a game that would have looked much bigger if Kentucky had stunned Alabama last week. Even without that upset, the Wildcats vs. the Aggies still has plenty of attention around the country.
In Other News...
Kentucky May Have Its Next Quarterback Worth Watching Already
Will Stein used his weekly radio show to give a little more shape to Kentuckys quarterback picture, and the early read is simple enough: Kenny Minchey is still the starter, while fifth-year quarterback Callum Wither sits behind him for now. The more intriguing part for Wildcats fans is the freshman waiting in the wings. Stein singled out Matt Ponatoski for his arm strength and the progress he has already made since arriving on campus, a notable comment for a true freshman in a room with an older backup already in place.
Ponatoski came to Kentucky with plenty of buzz, and not just because of his football rsum. He was a highly regarded high school quarterback and was also selected in baseball before choosing to bet on football in Lexington. Even with Wither holding the No. 2 spot at the moment, Steins comments suggest Ponatoski is already making enough noise to stay on the radar, which is exactly the kind of development Kentucky wants to see at the game's most important position. [Read more 🡒]
Kentucky Fans Are Getting An Early Reason To Dream On Jake Nawrot
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The buzz around Nawrot is only growing because his game has started to look every bit like the profile of a top national recruit. Rivals has him slotted No. 29 overall in the country and has drawn a comparison to NFL quarterback Drake Maye, a sign of how much athleticism and upside evaluators see in him as Kentucky continues building around its future at the position. [Read more 🡒]
Kentucky Faces A Brutal Test Against Texas A&Ms Defensive Strength
Kentuckys offense is headed into a matchup that could quickly turn into a field-position grind, and the concern starts long before third down arrives. Through two games, Will Stein has pointed to the need for better first- and second-down efficiency, knowing the Wildcats cannot afford to keep piling up long-yardage situations against a Texas A&M defense that has made a habit of keeping drives in front of it.
Texas A&M has once again been sturdy on money downs, and that is the kind of test that can expose any offense still searching for rhythm. For Kentucky, the challenge is not just beating the Aggies on third down, but avoiding the kind of snaps that let their defense dictate the pace and force the Wildcats into the toughest parts of the playbook. [Read more 🡒]