For all the things that have gone right in Kentucky’s 2026 season, third down has been the stubborn problem that keeps showing up.
That has been true on both sides of the ball. Through five games, Will Stein’s Wildcats have been one of the worst third-down teams in the FBS on offense and one of the least effective on defense, a combination that stands out even on a team that is 4-1, 2-1 SEC.
Kentucky’s offense is last among 138 FBS teams in third-down conversion rate at 24.5%, having converted just 13 of 53 tries. The defense hasn’t been much better, ranking 122nd at 45.9% after allowing 34 conversions on 74 chances.
With No. 10 LSU coming to Kroger Field on Saturday night, that issue becomes impossible to ignore. If Kentucky can clean up third down, what might the rest of the season look like?
“There’s no doubt, to be last in the country in any statistical category is not good,” Stein said Tuesday at his weekly news conference at Kroger Field. “So we work every single day on it.”
The numbers have been dragged down in part by the 45-17 loss to Alabama in Week 2, when Kentucky went just 1 of 14 on third down. But the trouble has shown up in other games too, including last Saturday’s 35-34 overtime win over South Carolina.
Against the Gamecocks, the Wildcats were 4 of 14 on offense and gave up 8 of 16 third-down conversions on defense. South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers repeatedly made plays when Kentucky needed a stop most.
Stein said the offense had chances in the first half to do better, especially on crossing routes that did not get executed the way Kentucky wanted.
“We had three (third-down conversion) opportunities (offensively) in the first half with crossing routes that we work every single day, and the route detail on those were not good,” Stein said. “... Kenny Darby on the first one on the crossing route, Mikkel Skinner on another crossing route, and then Willie (Rodriguez) on another crossing route, where we just kind of bled the route and didn’t really shape it how we want it and how we work it every day to create the best throw-and-catch opportunity.”
What makes Kentucky unusual is that a team can struggle this badly on third down and still be winning. Of the 10 worst FBS teams in offensive third-down percentage this week, Kentucky is the only one with four wins. Six of the other nine have losing records, and another is 2-2.
The reason the Wildcats have survived the problem is simple enough: they have done enough on earlier downs to keep drives alive. Kentucky is 47th nationally in first downs gained with 104.
Still, the defense may be the bigger concern over time. In the South Carolina game, Sellers converted a third-and-6 on the opening drive with a 10-yard scramble, helping ignite a touchdown march. Then in the fourth quarter, after Kentucky had moved in front 24-20, Sellers broke loose for a 74-yard run on third-and-11 from the South Carolina 24, setting up the score that put the Gamecocks back ahead.
Stein said Kentucky had stressed the importance of tackling Sellers low. That didn’t happen when it mattered.
“We got in position to get (Sellers) down, and we decided to tackle him high, and he broke tackles,” Stein said. “I mean, he’s a freak show. He’s one of the best athletes I’ve ever seen at quarterback.”
Containing quarterback scrambles has been a recurring issue for Kentucky. Stein noted that the quarterbacks the Wildcats have faced so far - Youngstown State’s Beau Brungard, Alabama’s Keelon Russell, Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed, South Alabama’s Jared Hollins and Sellers - all have the ability to run.
He said LSU’s Sam Leavitt and Oklahoma’s John Mateer, whom Kentucky will face Oct. 17, bring similar problems.
Leavitt ran for 113 yards against Clemson in LSU’s 51-10 win in the opener and added 63 yards in the Tigers’ 32-24 loss at Ole Miss on Sept. 19.
“It’s not like there’s giant explosive runs from running backs right now,” Stein said. “It’s literally quarterback scrambles, and so (stopping) that has to improve. And we know that.”
The challenge gets sharper this week because LSU brings strong third-down numbers of its own. The Tigers rank 12th nationally on offense at 51.9% after converting 41 of 79 attempts, and their defense sits ninth in the country by allowing conversions just 26.1% of the time, or 18 of 69.
Kentucky has beaten LSU in six of the previous 10 meetings in Lexington, a run that stretches from 1989 to 2021. But if the Wildcats want to keep pushing Stein’s first season forward, third down is the place they have to start.
“Staying on the field on third downs, converting on offense, getting off on third downs on defense ... those are big areas, major areas (for) improvement.”
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