Steve Sarkisian wants the record straight, and so does the résumé attached to this week’s picks.
Even with a rough last outing, the recent numbers still point in the right direction: 32-19 over the past five weeks, which comes out to 63 percent, the same completion rate Arch Manning is sitting on this season. So yes, the confidence remains intact as Week 7 rolls in with another slate built around lines courtesy of Polymarket.
The first stop is Friday night in the Sun Belt, where Appalachian State heads to Coastal Carolina. Coastal is breaking out special “Back to the ‘90s” uniforms for the home game, and the reaction has already been loud.
The Chanticleers are off to a 2-4 start, their worst since 2017, when they finished 3-9. Appalachian State, meanwhile, has faced the tougher schedule and brings the better offense and defense into the matchup.
The line is close, but the Mountaineers look like the side.
My Position: Appalachian State to cover +1½ at 55%
Ohio State gets one of the week’s most interesting swings at redemption when it visits Indiana. Ryan Day is in his 101st game as the Buckeyes’ coach, and for the first time he’s looking for revenge against a non-Michigan opponent from the previous season.
Indiana beat Ohio State 13-10 in last year’s Big Ten title game, but this time the Buckeyes have the clearer edge. Jeremiah Smith is a problem the Hoosiers have not seen enough of, and Indiana’s escape acts against Northwestern and Nebraska may not be repeatable here.
If the number needs a little massaging, buy it down, but Ohio State looks ready to end the Hoosiers’ 22-game winning streak.
My Position: Ohio State to cover -2½ at 58%
Georgia State brings one of the better statistical profiles in the Sun Belt into its trip to James Madison. The Dukes are 6-0, and earlier in the week the program announced it is leaving for the American Conference after four years in the league.
They’re also the Sun Belt’s only unbeaten team, which means the spotlight is only getting brighter. Georgia State has the kind of production that can make this one uncomfortable, leading the league in both total offense at 468 yards per game and total defense at 301 yards allowed per game.
Missouri faces a tough endurance test at Ole Miss, and the timing tilts toward the Rebels. Since the Sept. 26 loss at Florida, Ole Miss has effectively had two weeks to prepare, even if last week’s 52-17 win at Vanderbilt barely felt like work.
Missouri, on the other hand, is about to play its seventh straight game, with an open date still ahead. The Tigers have already been through an emotional stretch, and now they have to go into Oxford and deal with Trinidad Chambliss and Kewan Lacy.
My Position: Ole Miss to cover -4½ at 54%
If there’s a team lighting up the board right now, it’s Oregon State. The Beavers have won their last four games by 35, 26, 30 and 52 points, and they’ve got the country’s top passer in Braden Atkinson, who is averaging 376 passing yards per game, plus the nation’s leading receiver in Jesse Legree, who is averaging 24.5 yards per catch and 155 receiving yards per game. Washington State comes in as the last of the original Pac-12 holdovers, which gives this matchup a little extra edge, but Oregon State has been operating like a runaway train.
My Position: Oregon State to cover -16½ points at 55%
Oklahoma’s trip against Kentucky comes with a couple of different storylines attached. The Sooners are fresh off an upset of rival and No. 1-ranked Texas, while Kentucky has pieced together back-to-back overtime wins by landing two-point conversions at the right moments.
The Wildcats’ 5-1 record may not tell the whole story, and Oklahoma’s offense has been uneven all season. But the Sooners’ defense is real, and that matters here.
My Position: Oklahoma to cover -6½ at 53%
The week closes with Notre Dame at BYU, and this one has the feel of a true measuring stick game. Notre Dame has rolled through its last 16 victories by double digits, and in that stretch the Irish have been a favorite of fewer than 10 points only once.
That run has mostly come against inferior opposition, though. This time the challenge is bigger: a top-10 battle between unbeaten teams in what is being described as the biggest home game in BYU’s history.
The Cougars will be without RB LJ Martin, so Bear Bachmeier has more on his plate. On the other side, CJ Carr - once the preseason Heisman favorite - has a chance to reset the conversation with a big performance.
My Position: Notre Dame to cover -9½ at 55%
In Other News...
Greg McElroy's New Top 15 Just Raised The Stakes For Kentucky
Greg McElroys latest Top 15 on his Always College Football podcast turned the usual early-season ranking chatter into a little more than background noise for Kentucky. The ESPN analyst put Georgia at No. 1, with Indiana and Miami right behind, and used the list to frame how teams are being judged on performance so far and the hurdles still ahead.
For Kentucky, the relevance is less about the top three than the message embedded in McElroys rankings: the room for error keeps shrinking as the season moves forward. With the conference landscape already taking shape and every week carrying more weight, the Wildcats are now operating in a space where attention from the national conversation can swing quickly depending on what comes next. [Read more 🡒]
Mark Pope Just Gave Kentucky Fans A Huge Reason For Belief
At the SEC Basketball Tipoff, Mark Pope offered Kentucky fans a pretty clear glimpse of why optimism is running so high around this group. The Wildcats coach said his current team is probably the best shooting team he has ever coached, a notable statement given the offensive weapons and confidence he sees all over the roster. Pope pointed back to the shooting he had at Kentucky and BYU before stressing that this team brings a different level of firepower.
For a program that has spent plenty of time trying to balance talent with consistency, that kind of early praise matters. Kentucky has already seen individual players make noticeable gains as shooters, and Popes confidence suggests the offensive ceiling could be higher than expected when the season starts. The unanswered question now is whether that shooting translates once the games begin and defenses start turning up the pressure. [Read more 🡒]
Kentucky-Louisville Trash Talk Just Put December Bragging Rights On The Line
The Kentucky-Louisville rivalry always finds a way to sharpen itself in the days before tipoff, and this year it has a family twist. Karter Knox, once a Kentucky pledge and now a Louisville player, has been trading trash talk with his brother Kevin Knox as the teams head toward their December meeting in Lexington, adding a little extra edge to a game that already carries plenty of baggage.
Karter Knox has made it clear where his confidence sits, backing Louisville and describing the Cardinals as the best team in the nation. With the rivalry history still fresh and Louisville player Malachi Moreno also talking about payback, the buildup has only added fuel to a matchup that will mean more than just another early-season result for both sides. [Read more 🡒]