Will Stein’s first season at Kentucky comes with a warning label from ESPN’s FPI: the path is steep, the margins are thin, and the Wildcats are projected to spend most of the year fighting uphill.
That’s not exactly surprising when you look at the backdrop. Kentucky is operating in the SEC, where nearly every week brings a brutal test, and ESPN’s numbers peg the Wildcats with the 4th-hardest schedule in the country. Add in the financial reality around the program - basketball gets a huge slice of the attention, while Mitch Barnhart had also spread money around the Olympic sports - and the challenge gets even sharper.
Stein arrives with a strong résumé. He won 3 state titles as a high school player at Trinity, earned his way into Louisville’s starting lineup, was on Louisville’s staff during the 12-1 season in 2013, helped UTSA produce a top-10 offensive output, and kept that momentum going in Eugene. When asked why he thinks Kentucky can be successful, he said it was because of him.
ESPN’s FPI still isn’t buying much optimism on a week-to-week basis. The model gives Kentucky a 95.0% chance to beat Youngstown State on Sept. 5, then has the Wildcats at just 17.5% against Alabama on Sept.
12, 10.5% against Texas A&M on Sept. 19, 90.6% against South Alabama on Sept.
26, 25.5% against South Carolina on Oct. 3, 18.5% against LSU on Oct.
10, 13.7% against Oklahoma on Oct. 17, 45.0% against Vanderbilt on Oct.
24, 19.2% against Tennessee on Nov. 7, 32.9% against Florida on Nov.
14, 24.6% against Missouri on Nov. 21, and 43.2% against Louisville on Nov. 28.
In other words, the Wildcats are favored in only two games. That’s a harsh projection, and if Kentucky were to finish with fewer than four wins, the money spent to push Mark Stoops out would look ugly.
Still, there’s a different read on the schedule. One view of Kentucky’s season has the Wildcats opening with a 45-13 win over Youngstown State, then knocking off Alabama, falling to Texas A&M, beating South Alabama, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Florida, Missouri, and Louisville, while losing to LSU and Oklahoma.
The latest game offered at least some reason to believe the offense can carry its weight. Kentucky was efficient and balanced, throwing for 301 yards and rushing for 205. The defense still has work to do, but a 32-point win doesn’t leave much room for panic.
ESPN’s forecast says pain is coming. Kentucky, though, has a coach who has been winning for a long time - and Stein seems ready to spend the season trying to make the model look foolish.
In Other News...
Kentuckys Fast Start Vs Alabama Ended In A Brutal Second-Half Collapse
Kentucky looked in control early against No. 12 Alabama, jumping out with a fast start that suggested the Wildcats might be ready to land a statement win. Instead, the game flipped after halftime, when Alabama put together a relentless surge and Kentuckys offense never found its footing again.
The second half was especially rough for the Wildcats, who managed only three first downs and 62 total yards while Alabamas defense kept heat on the quarterback and forced multiple turnovers. Even after a shaky opening stretch, Alabamas quarterback settled down and helped guide the comeback, leaving Kentucky to sort through how a promising start unraveled so quickly. [Read more 🡒]
Kentucky Showed Whats Still Missing Against Alabama
Kentucky had a rare opening against Alabama at Kroger Field, building a 17-13 halftime lead behind a defense that even found the end zone on MiQuise Humphrey-Graces pick-six. For a half, the Wildcats looked like a team ready to make the Crimson Tide uncomfortable, and Alabama helped them along with several penalties that kept the home side in front heading into the break.
The second half, though, reminded Kentucky how much remains between a promising moment and a complete performance. Alabama scored on five straight possessions after halftime and rolled to a 45-17 win, pushing Kentucky to its 40th loss in 43 meetings with the Crimson Tide. The game was another example of how a good first half can turn quickly when the Wildcats cannot sustain it against an opponent built to punish every opening. [Read more 🡒]
Kentucky Let Another Alabama Opportunity Slip Away Fast
For a half, Kentucky looked like it had another heavyweight SEC upset within reach at Kroger Field. The Wildcats built a 17-13 lead on the strength of timely defensive plays, including an interception returned for a touchdown and a forced fumble, and for a while the home crowd had every reason to believe Alabama might be staring at a familiar road problem.
Alabama changed the feel of the game quickly after halftime, taking the lead in the third quarter and then pulling away in a hurry. Kentucky never scored again, getting shut out the rest of the way as the Crimson Tide finished with a 45-17 win and left the Wildcats to wonder how quickly a promising afternoon can turn once the margin for error disappears. [Read more 🡒]