NFL draft buzz around Arch Manning has shifted fast, and not in the direction Texas fans wanted to hear.
After his rough finish in Saturday’s 27-24 loss to Oklahoma, the conversation around the Longhorns junior quarterback is no longer centered on whether he can go No. 1 overall in the 2027 NFL Draft, scheduled for April 29-May 1 in Washington. The performance against the Sooners gave critics plenty to point to: two interceptions in the fourth quarter, including a pick-six that put Oklahoma ahead 24-17 and another turnover with 0:19 remaining that wiped out Texas’ last chance.
The Longhorns did answer after the pick-six with a touchdown on the next drive, but Manning’s final mistake set up the closing sequence. Sooners kicker Tate Sandell then drilled the game-winning 47-yard field goal.
That outing also fit the broader picture that has kept Manning out of the Heisman race. He’s no longer being talked about as a major awards contender, and the hype that once surrounded him as a future top overall selection has cooled.
ESPN’s Jordan Reid still sees the upside, but not enough consistency to treat Manning like a sure thing.
“Manning has two or three plays per game that explain why some scouts still view him as a potential top-10 pick,” wrote Reid. “But those plays are surrounded by too much inconsistency, which is why I have him graded as a Day 2 prospect right now on my QB hot board.”
The Ringer’s Todd McShay framed the struggles as part of a young quarterback’s development, especially for a 22-year-old with Manning’s tools.
“You can't coach his traits or some of his playmaking under pressure,” he wrote of the 6-foot-4, 222-pounder. “Locking onto targets, holding onto the ball too long and general inconsistency are all coachable issues that often improve with experience. We just happen to be watching his development under a microscope.”
But NFL teams do not wait forever. First-round quarterbacks are usually pushed onto the field early, and recent examples make that clear.
2024 No. 1 pick Caleb Williams started 17 games as a rookie for the Chicago Bears, and 2025 No. 1 pick Cam Ward also started 17 as a rookie for the Tennessee Titans. Even Jaxson Dart, selected No. 25 by the New York Giants, started 12 games in his rookie season.
So while Manning still has seven regular-season games left for Texas, the case for him being pro-ready is shaky right now. The Longhorns are 4-1, but his current 44th-ranked QBR in the country, 65.5, doesn’t scream immediate NFL polish.
Manning, the nephew of Peyton and Eli Manning and the grandson of Archie Manning, could still grow into the kind of quarterback people once projected. For now, though, that future remains ahead of him.
In Other News...
Kentuckys New SEC FPI Spot Says Plenty After The LSU Win
ESPNs latest Football Power Index update offered another snapshot of where Kentucky sits in the SEC after the Week 6 slate, and it adds some context to what the Wildcats just did against LSU. The model, which factors in recent results and projects the rest of the season, places Kentucky in the middle of a crowded conference picture alongside a cluster of teams trying to sort out their identities as the year moves deeper into October.
The broader SEC rankings also show how tight the race remains beneath the leagues heavyweights, with programs like Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Auburn, South Carolina, Mississippi State, Florida, Texas A&M and Missouri all carrying their own FPI numbers and projected paths. For Kentucky, the update matters because it reinforces that the LSU win was more than just a good night in Lexington, even if the real test is how the Wildcats build on it from here. [Read more 🡒]
Kentucky's Surprising Rise Faces Its Biggest Test Yet At Oklahoma
Kentuckys unexpected surge has carried it into October with real momentum, and the Wildcats have earned every bit of it. Under first-year head coach Will Stein, Kentucky has gone from a team trying to find its footing to one sitting at 5-1 overall and 3-1 in SEC play after back-to-back overtime wins against South Carolina and LSU, results that have changed the tone around the program in a hurry.
Now comes a different kind of challenge. Kentucky heads to Oklahoma on October 17 for the first conference meeting between the schools since the Sooners joined the SEC in 2024, and the timing could hardly be tougher, with Oklahoma fresh off an upset of then-No. 1 Texas in the Red River Rivalry and sitting at 3-2. For Kentucky, this is the kind of road test that can tell you whether the rise is real or still just the latest surprise in a long SEC season. [Read more 🡒]
Kentucky Fans May Have Just Seen A Program-Changing Night
For one night at Kroger Field, Kentucky football looked and felt like a program that had rediscovered its edge. The Wildcats knocked off No. 10 LSU 35-34 in overtime in front of a sellout crowd, and the setting only added to the moment, with a throwback uniform and a new team walkout ritual helping turn the evening into something bigger than a single upset.
The finish matched the atmosphere, with Kenny Mincheys two-point conversion delivering the winning play and setting off a celebration that spilled onto the field. The SEC later fined Kentucky $500,000 for the storming, a costly reminder of how rare and emotional the win felt for a fan base that has spent plenty of seasons waiting for a night like this. [Read more 🡒]