November football wasted no time shaking up ESPN’s FPI ratings after Week 10, and the biggest swings came with some lopsided scores. Since FPI is driven by the numbers and not the eye test, it can produce some head-turning placements - like 9-0 UCLA sitting one spot ahead of 5-4 Florida, or 7-2 Kentucky landing four spots behind 5-4 Penn State. Week 10 added another layer of chaos.
The largest move in both directions came out of Oklahoma State’s 66-28 rout, a result that sent the Cowboys climbing while also creating the week’s biggest drop elsewhere. Even after the bump, Oklahoma State sits at 6-3 with only a 4.5% chance to reach the College Football Playoff. Still, at fifth in the Big 12, the Cowboys may be one more statement win away from moving up, with Texas Tech currently second in the league at 14th.
Oklahoma also made a noticeable leap after its 23-7 win at Florida. That result pushed the Sooners into the middle of the SEC pack in FPI.
At 5-4, Oklahoma is out of the Playoff picture at 0.4%, but the win gives the Sooners an 86.6% chance to pick up one more victory and become bowl eligible. It’s not much, but in a season like this, it counts.
Duke’s 41-3 blowout of NC State moved the Blue Devils up a bit in the ACC hierarchy as well. The numbers still aren’t kind to Duke’s postseason hopes, though: even at 7-2, the Blue Devils have just a 1.1% shot at the Playoff. In the ACC, it still looks like Miami, maybe Wake, or bust.
Kansas State took one of the roughest hits of the week after an ugly 38-point loss dropped the Wildcats to just ahead of Colorado in the Big 12 basement. FPI now gives K-State only a 23% chance to get to six wins and bowl eligibility, and it doesn’t look great for either Kansas program making the postseason.
Kentucky also saw its standing slide after a 34-6 loss to Tennessee. FPI has not been especially high on this Wildcats team all year - it had Kentucky 26th when the CFP rankings placed them 6th - and the latest defeat brought another dip. Even so, FPI still slots Kentucky 12th in the SEC and gives the Wildcats a 36.5% chance at the College Football Playoff.
NC State’s 38-point loss to Duke sent the Wolfpack downward too, though they still have four ACC teams below them. At 4-5, FPI gives NC State just a 17.8% chance to reach six wins and bowl eligibility. With Dave Doeren already fired, that outcome isn’t exactly a shock.
In Other News...
Kentucky Fans Are Livid Over Josh Heupels Late Message
Tennessees 34-6 win over Kentucky was already lopsided long before the final whistle, with the Volunteers forcing three turnovers and controlling the game on both sides of the ball. Both teams still sit at 7-2 with three games left in the regular season, but this one left Kentucky fans stewing over more than the scoreboard.
Josh Heupels decision to keep the offense on the field late and add another touchdown instead of taking a knee became the flashpoint after the game, drawing plenty of anger from the Kentucky side. In a rivalry game that was already one-sided, the late score only added to the frustration and gave Wildcats fans one more thing to talk about as the season moves on. [Read more 🡒]
Kentucky Fans Have Every Right To Be Furious After Tennessee Loss
Kentuckys trip to Neyland Stadium ended with a loss to Tennessee, but the frustration around this one goes well beyond the final score. The Wildcats had plenty of reasons to feel they were on the wrong end of a game that turned on a few pivotal moments, especially with two officiating decisions drawing immediate attention as the kind that can swing field position, momentum and maybe more.
One came near halftime, when a potential defensive pass interference call against Tennessee went unmade, and another arrived in the third quarter on an offsides look involving Qua Moss that also went uncalled. With three games still left, Kentucky can still keep its season alive and even put itself in position for a College Football Playoff push if it runs the table, but the sting from this one is going to linger until the next chance to get back on track. [Read more 🡒]
Kentuckys Playoff Push Took A Brutal Hit In Knoxville
Kentuckys trip to Knoxville was supposed to be another step in a College Football Playoff push, but it turned into a night of self-inflicted damage at Neyland Stadium. The Wildcats controlled the clock and outgained Tennessee, yet the scoreboard told a far harsher story in a 34-6 loss that was shaped by turnovers, penalties and a string of missed chances.
Three giveaways loomed over the defeat, and Kentucky never found a way to turn its edge in possession into points when it mattered. The loss dropped the Wildcats to 7-2 and left their playoff hopes in a far more precarious spot, with little margin left for error as the season moves into its final stretch. [Read more 🡒]