It’s Week 5, and the upset board is loaded again.
Last week was the best run of the season so far for these picks, with three of five coming through, including Iowa’s buzzer-beating win over Michigan. That kind of hit rate is exactly the goal here, and there’s another batch of live dogs on deck for the 2026 college football slate.
North Texas is one of the first names on the list. Tulsa does get quarterback Baylor Hayes back, but the Mean Green still look capable of going into Skelly Field and stealing one.
North Texas has outperformed expectations after losing Eric Morris, Drew Mestemaker, Caleb Hawkins and others to Oklahoma State, and Neal Brown has the program off to a strong start. Through four weeks, UNT ranks 14th nationally in yards per play.
Tulsa, meanwhile, has looked shaky since its Week 1 win over Oklahoma State, surviving a close one against Sam Houston State before getting blown out by Arkansas as a touchdown underdog.
Northwestern is another upset pick that jumps out, especially with the setting. This is the Wildcats’ first home game in their brand new Ryan Field, so the homefield edge should be real.
Quarterback Aiden Chiles also looks like a difference-maker, and Northwestern’s offensive staff has serious firepower with Chip Kelly calling the shots as offensive coordinator and Jerry Neuheisel coaching the quarterbacks. Penn State comes in after an embarrassing collapse against Wisconsin, which only adds to the case for the home dog.
Auburn over Tennessee is a call built around quarterback play. Faizon Brandon may not be ready to handle this level every week, and his production has fallen off sharply against P4 competition this year.
Byrum Brown hasn’t exactly lit it up, but Auburn still gets the nod at quarterback because of his experience. If Brandon has another rough outing like the ones against Georgia Tech and Texas, Auburn has a real shot to win outright.
Kentucky is another team worth circling. South Carolina looks like it may be heading toward the end of the Shane Beamer era, especially after never truly recovering from its 9-3 season in 2024.
LaNorris Sellers has not been effective since the opener against Kent State, and now the Gamecocks will also be without star pass rusher Dylan Stewart because of suspension. Kentucky was poor against South Alabama last time out, but the staff had extra time to prepare for South Carolina, and the Wildcats are being backed here because of the coaching edge and the more talented offense.
Pick: Kentucky to win (43% on Novig)
The final upset pick is Cal over UNLV, and this one is more about market value than confidence in either side. Cal hasn’t been easy to watch, and Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has been wildly disappointing by any metric.
Still, there’s skepticism here about UNLV, too. The Rebels are not viewed as a strong team in this spot, and there isn’t much reason to make them a favorite against a P4 opponent.
Cal was a 2.5-point home underdog against Clemson last week and is +2.5 again in Las Vegas this week. That comparison isn’t perfect, but the spread is close enough to suggest this may be the low point on Cal.
In Other News...
Trent Noah Faces A Make Or Break Stretch At Kentucky
Trent Noahs freshman year in Lexington offered a glimpse of what Kentucky hoped it was getting, especially with that memorable showing against Arkansas, but the rest of the season made clear how quickly the margins tighten for a perimeter player. His shot from deep never really settled in after that, and the offseason brought another obstacle in the form of hamstring injuries, even as he continued to show the kind of eagerness to improve that keeps him in the conversation heading into the new season.
Now Noah enters a stretch that could say a lot about where he fits in Kentuckys rotation. The Wildcats roster additions should create better spacing and cleaner looks, which matters for a shooter trying to rediscover his rhythm, and Noahs own push to contribute more gives this fall a little extra weight. If he can take advantage of the room around him, he has a real chance to turn last years promise into something more lasting. [Read more 🡒]
Big Blue Madness Gives Kentucky A Huge Chance With Elite Visitor
Big Blue Madness at Rupp Arena is set to bring the usual mix of introductions, drills, skill competitions and scrimmaging, and this years version arrives with a little extra weight attached. Kentucky has already landed a commitment from Ryan Hampton and has offers out to 23 other players in the 2027 class, but the spotlight this weekend also falls on the kind of elite visitor who can shape how a recruiting pitch is remembered long after the lights go down.
CJ Rosser, one of the top names in the 2027 cycle, made the trip to Lexington for the festivities, giving Mark Pope and Kenny Brooks a chance to showcase Kentucky in front of a prospect who has already seen several other major programs. He has been around the recruiting block with visits to Arkansas, Miami, NC State and North Carolina, which makes this stop in Lexington especially important for a staff looking to make an early impression in a cycle that already has plenty of momentum. [Read more 🡒]
Kentucky Fans May Not All Agree With Will Stein On This
Will Stein used his weekly radio show to make a familiar argument in modern college football circles: the game is drifting closer to the NFL, so the rules should probably follow suit. The Kentucky offensive coordinator pointed out that college football already operates as a developmental pipeline for the league, and he suggested the sport should align more closely with the pro game when it comes to how teams play and how the field is set up.
Stein also focused on kickoffs, a spot where the college game has changed dramatically in recent years. He said he would like to see more returns, but added that the current version of the play has become less exciting and remains too dangerous, a view that is sure to draw agreement from some fans and pushback from others who prefer college football to keep its own identity. [Read more 🡒]