The Big 12 picture is starting to sharpen, and Week 4 left behind a few hot takes that suddenly don’t feel all that hot.
Start with Oklahoma State. After a rough Week 1, the Cowboys have settled in as one of the most explosive offenses in the country, and they backed that up with a 41-24 road win at West Virginia.
That’s not a soft landing spot, either. Caleb Hawkins ran for 180 yards and a touchdown, Drew Mestemaker - the author’s pick to lead the league in passing yards - threw for 389 yards and three scores, and Wyatt Young tore up the Mountaineers’ secondary with eight catches for 192 yards and a touchdown.
When all of that is happening in the same game, it’s fair to say Oklahoma State’s offensive ceiling is as high as anybody’s.
Kansas State, meanwhile, took its first road trip of the season and came home with a loss after building a 10-0 lead early in the second quarter at Cincinnati. The Wildcats had looked dominant in all three phases through the first three weeks, but now the question is whether that was real or just a product of lighter competition.
It’s too early to bury Kansas State, but opening conference play with a loss is not the start it wanted. And there’s another layer here: Cincinnati might be better than plenty of people thought.
The Bearcats are 4-0, and after falling behind early, they answered back in a big way. They may not be a Big 12 title team, but they’re clearly more dangerous than expected.
Colorado is heading in the opposite direction. The Buffaloes were beaten soundly at Northwestern, then dropped to 0-1 in league play with a 23-13 loss at Baylor.
Now the schedule gets brutal. Colorado is set for three straight games against ranked opponents: No.
12 Texas Tech at home, then No. 13 Utah in Boulder, and then a trip to Stillwater to face the surging Cowboys.
Looking at the rest of the schedule, Colorado may only be favored once more, at home against UCF on November 28 - and even that is no sure thing. If the Buffaloes end up with three wins, the source raises the question of whether Coach Prime should be on the hot seat, and says he should be.
With Week 5 up next, West Virginia and Iowa State looks like a game worth circling. Both teams took a step back last week - West Virginia got punked at home by Oklahoma State, while Iowa State was handled by Utah in Ames - and this one feels like it could swing either way. Iowa State is a small early favorite, but West Virginia may have the better roster, which is exactly why this matchup has the feel of a one-score game.
The Big 12’s top two teams in the rankings are also taking the road this weekend. No.
10 BYU goes to TCU, while No. 12 Texas Tech heads to Colorado.
Early lines have BYU as about a touchdown favorite and Texas Tech as roughly a two-touchdown favorite. Both teams are being treated like Big 12 Championship Game contenders, but Utah, Oklahoma State and Cincinnati would all like a say in that conversation.
Road games in this league have a way of getting strange, and this weekend should tell us a little more about both teams.
Then there’s Cincinnati again, this time in Tucson for Big 12 After Dark against Arizona. The Bearcats are 4-0 after knocking off Kansas State, and Arizona comes in off a road win at Washington State.
It’s not a game that will settle the conference race, but it matters for both teams as the postseason picture starts to form. Arizona is an early seven-point favorite, but if Cincinnati wins again, the Bearcats will be 5-0 and starting to look like legitimate Big 12 contenders.
Arizona, naturally, will try to make sure that doesn’t happen.
October is here, and the Big 12 is just getting warmed up. Things are about to get really fun in this conference.
In Other News...
Kansas State Suddenly Has A Big 12 Problem It Can't Ignore
The loss to Cincinnati left Kansas State with more than just a mark in the standings. Collin Klein made it clear afterward that the Wildcats have a run-defense issue to clean up, after the Bearcats rolled up 271 rushing yards on 38 carries and controlled enough of the game to leave Manhattan with a 31-26 win. Gi'Bran and Cole Tabb fueled that ground attack, giving Kansas State a long afternoon trying to slow things down at the line of scrimmage.
Klein also pointed to the offense's stalled drives as part of why the Wildcats came up short, which only adds to the pressure heading into the stretch ahead. For a team with Big 12 aspirations, getting pushed around on the ground is the kind of problem that can follow you if it is not corrected quickly, especially when the margin for error is already getting thinner. [Read more 🡒]
Cincinnati Just Made The Kind Of Big 12 Statement Fans Needed
Cincinnatis first Big 12 game of the season delivered exactly the kind of message the league tends to notice, and Kansas State was on the wrong side of it. The Bearcats pushed through an early deficit, leaned on their run blocking and got important production on the ground from GiBran Payne and Cole Tabb. For a team trying to show it can handle life in this conference, the win mattered plenty, and it lifted Cincinnati to 4-0 for the first time since 2021.
For Kansas State, the loss serves as an early reminder that Big 12 openers can turn fast when the other side starts controlling the line of scrimmage. Cincinnatis second-half response was the difference, and it left the Wildcats having to sort through how a game they led early slipped away. In a league where every road test can turn into a statement opportunity, this one belonged to the Bearcats. [Read more 🡒]
Kansas State Wasted A Huge Day With One Crushing Mistake
Derrick Salley Jr. gave Kansas State plenty to build on with a huge afternoon against Cincinnati, piling up seven catches for 140 yards and a touchdown in a game that had the Wildcats in position to make a statement. For most of the day, he looked like the kind of difference-maker who can tilt a close Big 12 matchup, giving the passing game a needed spark and keeping Kansas State within reach.
Collin Klein, though, knows the Wildcats were left to rue one costly sequence. Salleys fumble on the first play of the second half swung the momentum toward Cincinnati and helped turn a promising spot into a 31-26 loss. It was the kind of mistake that can erase a big individual performance in a hurry, and Kansas State now has to sort out how to pair production with cleaner execution when the margin is this thin. [Read more 🡒]