Colorado heads into Halloween week in rough shape, and the numbers are not doing the Buffaloes any favors.
After a 57-24 loss to Oklahoma State, Colorado is on its fifth straight defeat and staring at plenty of questions about Deion Sanders’ future in Boulder. The scoreboard has been ugly enough. The predictive metrics have only piled on.
ESPN’s Football Power Index now has Colorado sitting at the bottom of the Big 12 at 16th overall. The Buffaloes carry a -2.0 FPI rating and rank 75th nationally.
ESPN projects Colorado to finish somewhere between 3.4 and 8.6, and the path to reach eight wins is as narrow as it gets: the Buffaloes would have to win out, starting with the Oct. 31 meeting with Kansas State. ESPN gives them just a 0.2 percent chance to do that.
The bowl picture is even bleaker. Colorado’s chance to get to six wins sits at 2.9 percent, and the Buffaloes are listed at 0.0 for winning the Big 12, making the College Football Playoff, reaching the national title game or claiming the championship.
Kansas State arrives with a much healthier record at 4-3, though the Wildcats have their own blemishes in conference play. All three of their losses have come in the Big 12, against Cincinnati, Houston and most recently Arizona State. Their lone league win came in a 35-24 victory over Kansas.
The Wildcats’ FPI is far better than Colorado’s at 5.7, and ESPN projects Kansas State at 6.4 to 5.6. Still, their odds of running the table are only 2.6 percent. The bigger number for KSU is 77.6 percent, which is ESPN’s estimate for the Wildcats getting to six wins and becoming bowl eligible.
Colorado is also about to see another quarterback who can hurt defenses in multiple ways. The Buffaloes have already dealt with dual-threat options like Northwestern’s Aidan Chiles, Texas Tech’s Will Hammond, Utah’s Devon Dampier and, on Oct. 24, Oklahoma State’s Drew Mestemaker.
Kansas State’s Avery Johnson comes in with 13 total touchdowns, including 10 through the air. He also leads the Wildcats on the ground with 462 rushing yards and a 9.1 yards-per-carry average, and he has already posted two 100-yard rushing games, going for 152 against Tulane and 132 against Kansas.
The Wildcats have more than one weapon in the backfield, too. Rodney Fields has 422 rushing yards and five touchdowns, while Joe Jackson has added 371 yards. Through the air, Jaron Tibbs leads Kansas State with 34 catches for 325 yards and four scores, and Josh Manning has 26 receptions for 254 yards and two touchdowns.
FanDuel lists Kansas State as a 1.5-point favorite. Colorado has dropped three of the last four meetings in the series, though the Buffaloes still own a 45-22-1 edge overall against the Wildcats.
In Other News...
Kansas State Suddenly Has A Quarterback Concern At The Worst Time
The Big 12 race keeps opening and closing in odd ways, with BYU and Texas Tech both getting tripped up in recent conference upsets while Utah remains the leagues lone unbeaten team but still has plenty of hard football ahead. For Kansas State, though, the bigger issue is much more immediate: the Wildcats are suddenly sorting through quarterback injuries at a point in the season when every conference game feels like it matters twice.
Avery Johnson is listed as day to day, and backup Jacob Knuth is injured as well, leaving Kansas State with an uneasy spot in the one place it can least afford one. The Wildcats have stayed in the hunt long enough to know how thin the margin is in the Big 12, and now their ability to keep pace may hinge on how quickly the depth chart settles before the next round of games arrives. [Read more 🡒]
Deion Sanders Adds Intrigue To Kansas State's Biggest Road Test Yet
Colorados weekly press conference added a little extra texture to Kansas States biggest road test yet, with Deion Sanders taking a moment to acknowledge what the Wildcats are dealing with on the opposite sideline. Sanders spoke with respect about former Kansas State coach Chris Klieman and also had praise for Collin Klein, who is guiding the program in his first season as head coach. It was the kind of pregame chatter that matters because it underscores how much attention this matchup has drawn, even before kickoff.
Sanders own background and influence on college football are part of why his comments carry so much weight, but the focus in Manhattan is less on the sound bites than on the challenge ahead. Kansas State will face a Colorado team that knows how to command the spotlight, while Klein continues to put his stamp on the Wildcats in a transition year that already has some intrigue around it. With the game approaching, the conversation around this one is as much about coaching voices and program direction as it is about what happens on the field. [Read more 🡒]
Deion Sanders Just Put Colorados Biggest Problem In Focus Before K-State
Colorados special teams have taken a step forward, but the bigger issue around Deion Sanders program still sounds familiar: the Buffaloes keep hurting themselves with penalties and uneven play on offense, defense and special teams. Sanders said the group is improving in one area while still fighting the kind of consistency problems that can undo a team long before the opponent does, and he pointed to a broader need for better preparation as the schedule moves on.
For Kansas State, that kind of self-inflicted noise is the sort of thing worth watching closely. The Wildcats have their own reasons to stay locked in, but Sanders made it clear his team is still searching for cohesion and discipline, and he took responsibility for getting it there. With K-State up next, Colorados margin for error already looks thin, even if one part of the operation has started to settle in. [Read more 🡒]