Kansas State is back home after two straight road losses, but the matchup waiting at Bill Snyder Family Stadium on Saturday looks like a brutal one.
The Wildcats host Oklahoma State on Nov. 7 at noon CT, with the game set to air on TNT. Kansas State enters at 4-4 overall and 1-4 in the Big 12, and it will turn to Blake Barnett at quarterback.
That makes him the fourth different starter in as many weeks. Regular starter Avery Johnson is still out and could miss the rest of the season.
Oklahoma State comes in at 5-3 and 3-2 in conference play, though the Cowboys have dropped two of their last three. Last week’s 51-49 loss at Iowa State was the latest reminder that this team can score in bunches. The Cowboys have put up at least 32 points every week since their Week 1 loss at Tulsa, and they’re driven by quarterback Drew Mestemaker, who is widely regarded as the best QB draft prospect in the sport.
For Kansas State, the path to an upset is hard to see, but there are a few cracks in Oklahoma State’s armor. The Cowboys have one of the worst pass defenses among Power 4 teams, and quarterbacks have been efficient against them. They’ve also allowed the 11th-most rushing yards per game among Big 12 teams.
That said, Kansas State has not been forcing turnovers, which is one area where Oklahoma State can be vulnerable. The Wildcats’ special teams also were rough in last week’s loss, while the Cowboys have had issues there too. Barnett did show some promise in last week’s loss at Colorado, and that at least gives K-State something to build on.
There’s also the question of how much stock to put into Oklahoma State’s recent results. Iowa State beat the Cowboys last week, and the week before that Colorado led by one at halftime before Oklahoma State erupted for 34 unanswered points in the second half. Still, the Cowboys lost to Tulsa, so there’s at least a case that they’ve been playing to the level of the opponent - or maybe they’re simply not as dominant as their numbers suggest.
Even so, this feels like a tough ask for Kansas State. The Wildcats’ defense hasn’t shown it can slow down an offense like this, and the quarterback situation leaves the offense in flux.
Oklahoma State also brings a run game that adds another layer of trouble. Caleb Hawkins leads an offense averaging 190.9 rushing yards, and Hawkins is the nation’s 11th-leading rusher. That combination doesn’t line up well for a Kansas State defense that has been vulnerable on the ground.
Prediction: Oklahoma State 42, Kansas State 28
Even with Avery Johnson healthy, this would be a difficult matchup for Kansas State. Without him, the Wildcats don’t look built to survive a shootout with a Cowboys offense powered by a future NFL quarterback and a scheme that keeps producing points.
In Other News...
Kansas State's Thinning Offense Faces Another Worry Before Oklahoma State
Kansas States offense is already navigating a major shakeup with Avery Johnson out for the season, and now another key piece is in question heading into the Oklahoma State game. Joe Jackson, the Wildcats third-leading rusher, was listed as questionable on the injury report, adding more uncertainty to a unit that has had to adjust on the fly and lean on whatever depth it can find.
Jacksons value goes beyond simple rushing production, because he gives the Wildcats a versatile option in an offense that can ill afford to lose flexibility right now. With the quarterback situation settled only in the sense that Johnson is unavailable, Kansas State is left waiting on another important availability call before it can fully sort out how it wants to attack the Cowboys. [Read more 🡒]
Kansas State Suddenly Has A Road Problem Collin Klein Must Solve
A promising start has given way to a rough patch for Kansas State, and the Wildcats are suddenly staring at a road issue that has become hard to ignore. After two straight losses, Collin Klein pointed to a broader pattern that has followed the program for three years, with close games away from Manhattan turning into a recurring problem.
Injuries to Avery Johnson have only made the challenge steeper, forcing Kansas State to lean on inexperienced backups in recent weeks. The latest setback came in an overtime game against Colorado, another example of how thin the margin has been when the Wildcats leave home, and why Klein now has to find a fix before the season's road troubles define the bigger picture. [Read more 🡒]
Yamil Talib May Have Earned A Much Bigger Colorado Role
Colorados win over Kansas State put Yamil Talib squarely in the spotlight, and the edge rusher made the most of it with a disruptive afternoon that included eight tackles, two sacks and two tackles for loss. For a player working his way back from a shoulder injury, it was the kind of performance that can change how a coaching staff views him, especially when it comes against a conference opponent and comes with the sort of urgency Colorado has been looking for on defense.
Talib said afterward that the production was as much about the people around him as it was about his own effort, pointing to his defensive teammates and coaches for helping him settle in. He also talked about the preparation habits he picked up from his uncle, former NFL cornerback Aqib Talib, which added another layer to a breakout day that felt bigger than one box score line. The question now is whether this was a one-game spike or the start of a much larger role. [Read more 🡒]