Kansas State Basketball Isn’t a Tournament Team Yet - But That Could Change Fast in Big 12 Play
At 9-4, Kansas State isn’t exactly turning heads as a March Madness lock - not yet, anyway. But in college basketball, especially when you’re playing in a conference as deep and unforgiving as the Big 12, everything can change in a hurry.
The Wildcats haven’t notched a signature win through their first 13 games, and that’s left them largely off the radar in most NCAA Tournament projections. But here’s where things get interesting: the Big 12 is stacked, and every game from here on out is an opportunity to rewrite the narrative.
Big 12 Gauntlet Offers a Path
Arizona, BYU, Iowa State, Kansas, and Texas Tech - all top-25 teams. And that’s just the start.
As the season unfolds, don’t be surprised if more Big 12 squads join that group. That’s the beauty - and the brutality - of playing in a powerhouse league.
For a team like Kansas State, it means every conference win is a résumé booster, every upset a chance to move the needle.
Right now, the Wildcats are barely on the bracketology radar. According to Bracket Matrix, they show up in just one of 46 projections - slotted in as a No. 10 seed. Not great, but hey, one is better than none.
What’s Working in K-State’s Favor
Let’s talk about what the Wildcats do have going for them. There’s a trio of wins that may not have looked like much at the time but are aging surprisingly well: California, Creighton, and Tulsa.
None of those teams entered the season with high expectations, but Cal and Tulsa are both sitting at 12-1 - even if those records came against soft schedules. And Creighton, now 8-5, hasn’t dropped a game since falling to K-State. If those teams keep winning, those victories could carry more weight in the eyes of the selection committee.
That said, it hasn’t all been smooth sailing. Four straight losses to Nebraska, Indiana, Bowling Green, and Seton Hall dealt a serious blow to the Wildcats’ early-season momentum. Those games are going to linger on the résumé unless they’re offset by some quality wins in conference play.
Metrics Paint a Murky Picture
Here’s where the Wildcats stand in the most trusted analytics rankings:
- NET: 60
- EvanMiya: 61
- Bart Torvik: 72
- KenPom: 73
- Haslametrics: 82
That’s a mixed bag - good enough to stay in the bubble conversation, but not nearly strong enough to feel comfortable. The margin for error is thin, and the road ahead is anything but easy.
What Will It Take to Dance in March?
There’s no magic number for getting into the NCAA Tournament. But history gives us a hint: Kansas State has made the tournament the last nine times it hit the 20-win mark. That’s a solid benchmark.
To get there, Jerome Tang’s squad needs 11 more wins between now and the end of the Big 12 Tournament. That’s a tall order in this league, but not impossible.
ESPN’s bracket expert currently has the Wildcats just outside the field - 10 spots out, to be exact. Bart Torvik’s tournament projection tool gives them a 7.6% chance to make the dance. Not great odds, but not zero either.
It All Starts Now
The Wildcats open Big 12 play Saturday at home against BYU. It’s not just another game - it’s a chance to start flipping the script. Because in this conference, every night is an audition for March.
Kansas State’s tournament hopes aren’t dead. Far from it. But they’ll need to earn their spot the hard way - one gritty, resume-building win at a time.