Kansas State walks into its Big 12 opener with a defense that has spent three games looking like one of the nation’s most disruptive units. The Wildcats are top five nationally in sack rate, tackles for loss per game, yards per play allowed and completion percentage allowed, and the front has been especially nasty. Through three games, K-State is producing 10 tackles for loss per game and 3.67 sacks per game.
There is, though, one crack in the armor: explosive runs. K-State sits last in the Big 12 and 128th nationally in rushing explosives allowed, with 16 runs of 10 or more yards surrendered.
Only 23 teams have given up more. Even so, the Wildcats still rank No. 23 nationally in yards per carry allowed at 2.8, helped by all the negative plays they keep creating.
That issue gets tested tonight against Cincinnati, and this is not a soft landing. The Bearcats bring what may be the best offensive line K-State sees all season.
Coming into the year, Brett Ciancia’s Pick Six Previews ranked Cincinnati’s line No. 2 in the Big 12 and 11th nationally. It was a Joe Moore Award semifinalist last season after finishing second nationally with only eight sacks allowed in 2025 and ranking top 10 with 5.7 yards per carry.
Cincinnati returned three starters up front, and all three have picked up All-Big 12 honors at some point in their careers. Guard Evan Tengesdahl headlines the group after earning third-team Associated Press All-American honors last season and grading out by Pro Football Focus as the best guard in the Big 12 and sixth-best nationally. Left tackle Joe Cotton is a preseason All-Big 12 First-Team pick, center Taran Tyo has graded as the country’s fourth-best center through three games according to Pro Football Network, right tackle Judea Milon is PFN’s top-graded right tackle in the FBS this season, and guard Xavier Lozowicki has been graded as the No. 6 right guard during the 2026 season.
That line is fueling a rushing attack that has been dangerous early. Cincinnati is 15th nationally at 6.3 yards per carry, and it has been popping explosive runs too, ranking No. 6 nationally with 25 rushes of 10 or more yards and tied for 10th with eight carries of 20-plus yards.
The Bearcats are also doing a strong job of limiting chaos on their side of the ball, with a havoc rate of just 9.6%, good for 16th nationally. That’s where K-State’s defense comes in. The Wildcats own a havoc rate of more than 26% through three games, which is No. 1 in the Big 12 and eighth in the country, and the front seven’s havoc rate of over 20% ranks fourth nationally.
If the Wildcats can make Cincinnati live in third-and-five or longer, that changes the shape of the night.
Quarterback JC French IV has put up clean-looking numbers. He’s completed more than 76% of his passes, which ranks sixth nationally, and he has not thrown an interception.
PFF has not charged him with a turnover-worthy play either. That is a major shift for the Georgia Southern transfer, who threw 19 interceptions over the previous two seasons combined before arriving at Cincinnati.
Still, the production comes with a caveat. French IV ranks 132nd out of 138 FBS quarterbacks and last in the Big 12 in average depth of target at 6.5 yards per pass, so Cincinnati has not been stressing defenses vertically.
The Bearcats are 104th nationally and 13th in the Big 12 in passing explosives, and only UCF has fewer receptions of 20 yards or more in the conference. Their first two FBS opponents, Miami (Ohio) and Boston College, also rank 132nd and 100th nationally in opposing passer rating allowed.
Now French IV faces the nation’s No. 4 defense in passer rating allowed. K-State has held opponents under a 45% completion percentage, the second-best mark in the country, though the level of passing offense it has seen so far has not been elite.
The one thing K-State has to guard against is letting French IV slip away. The Wildcats’ edge rushers are built to attack, and they’ve been excellent at it, ranking No. 2 nationally with a near 18% sack rate.
But if they lose contain, French IV can make them pay with his legs. He leads the Big 12 with 15 scrambles, while K-State quarterback Avery Johnson is second in the league with 11, according to PFF.
French IV has not thrown an interception or even been charged with a turnover-worthy play this season, and K-State’s secondary has yet to pick off a pass.
That changes tonight. The Wildcats get an interception from French IV and leave with a 27-24 win.
In Other News...
Kansas State Is Starting Earlier Than Ever On One Key Roster Need
Kansas State is wasting no time looking ahead, and that urgency is showing up in the early pursuit of its 2028 class. Among the latest names on the board is Allen High School defensive back Elijah Smith, part of a growing list of young prospects the Wildcats have already reached out to as they try to get an early jump on one of the most important spots on the roster.
The group of offers also includes Quinn Jacobs, Dailon Denkins, Julian Dwyer, Jekai Lee, Brady Reeves, Sloan Blackwell, Jerry Richmond and Asher Megonnell, a sign that Kansas State is casting a wide net well before those players are close to signing day. The timing says as much about the Wildcats recruiting priorities as the names themselves, with the staff clearly treating this as a position it wants to stay ahead of for years to come. [Read more 🡒]
Kansas State Fans Should Watch One Overlooked Wildcats Target Saturday
Kansas State heads into Saturdays matchup with Cincinnati as a 6.5-point favorite, and the Wildcats passing game offers a few interesting angles for bettors looking beyond the usual names. One of the more overlooked options is Garrett Oakley, whose growing chemistry with quarterback Avery Johnson has started to make him a worthwhile piece of the offense, especially against a Bearcats defense that leans on zone coverage.
Oakleys role could be the kind that pays off quietly rather than loudly, which is often where value lives in the prop market. With the total sitting at 55.5, Kansas State should have chances to move the ball through the air, and Oakleys usage gives him a path to turn into a steady contributor if the game script opens up the right way. [Read more 🡒]
Kansas State Finally Faces The Test That Will Define This 3-0 Start
Kansas States unbeaten start has already given the Wildcats a little early momentum, but the next step looks a lot more revealing. After beating Tulane 31-20 to move to 3-0, the Wildcats now head to Cincinnati with a chance to reach 4-0 for the first time since 2012, and this one feels less like a checkpoint than a measuring stick.
The matchup brings a familiar kind of September tension, with both teams putting up similar offensive numbers but Kansas State carrying the clearer edge on defense. Kickoff is set for 6:00 p.m. CT at Nippert Stadium, with ESPN2 among the outlets carrying the game, and the real question now is whether the Wildcats can turn a promising start into something sturdier before the schedule asks for even more. [Read more 🡒]