November football wasted no time shaking up ESPN’s FPI ratings after Week 10, and the biggest swings came with some lopsided scores. Since FPI is driven by the numbers and not the eye test, it can produce some head-turning placements - like 9-0 UCLA sitting one spot ahead of 5-4 Florida, or 7-2 Kentucky landing four spots behind 5-4 Penn State. Week 10 added another layer of chaos.
The largest move in both directions came out of Oklahoma State’s 66-28 rout, a result that sent the Cowboys climbing while also creating the week’s biggest drop elsewhere. Even after the bump, Oklahoma State sits at 6-3 with only a 4.5% chance to reach the College Football Playoff. Still, at fifth in the Big 12, the Cowboys may be one more statement win away from moving up, with Texas Tech currently second in the league at 14th.
Oklahoma also made a noticeable leap after its 23-7 win at Florida. That result pushed the Sooners into the middle of the SEC pack in FPI.
At 5-4, Oklahoma is out of the Playoff picture at 0.4%, but the win gives the Sooners an 86.6% chance to pick up one more victory and become bowl eligible. It’s not much, but in a season like this, it counts.
Duke’s 41-3 blowout of NC State moved the Blue Devils up a bit in the ACC hierarchy as well. The numbers still aren’t kind to Duke’s postseason hopes, though: even at 7-2, the Blue Devils have just a 1.1% shot at the Playoff. In the ACC, it still looks like Miami, maybe Wake, or bust.
Kansas State took one of the roughest hits of the week after an ugly 38-point loss dropped the Wildcats to just ahead of Colorado in the Big 12 basement. FPI now gives K-State only a 23% chance to get to six wins and bowl eligibility, and it doesn’t look great for either Kansas program making the postseason.
Kentucky also saw its standing slide after a 34-6 loss to Tennessee. FPI has not been especially high on this Wildcats team all year - it had Kentucky 26th when the CFP rankings placed them 6th - and the latest defeat brought another dip. Even so, FPI still slots Kentucky 12th in the SEC and gives the Wildcats a 36.5% chance at the College Football Playoff.
NC State’s 38-point loss to Duke sent the Wolfpack downward too, though they still have four ACC teams below them. At 4-5, FPI gives NC State just a 17.8% chance to reach six wins and bowl eligibility. With Dave Doeren already fired, that outcome isn’t exactly a shock.
In Other News...
Kansas State Suddenly Has A Bigger Problem Than Just One Loss
Kansas States rough November got a lot uglier in Stillwater, where the Wildcats were blown out by Oklahoma State 66-28 and absorbed a third straight loss. The defeat pushed the season into dangerous territory, with bowl eligibility suddenly no longer a given, and it left head coach Collin Klein describing the afternoon as one of the worst he has experienced.
The problems were everywhere for Kansas State, from an offense that never found any rhythm to a defense that could not slow Oklahoma State quarterback Drew Mestemaker, who finished 22 of 28 for 313 yards and four touchdowns. After a game like that, the Wildcats are not just trying to bounce back from one bad result, they are trying to stop a slide before it turns into something much harder to fix. [Read more 🡒]
Kansas State Just Exposed A Bigger Problem Than One Bad Loss
Kansas States lopsided 66-28 loss to Oklahoma State at Bill Snyder Family Stadium was ugly from the opening stretches, but the score only told part of the story. Drew Mestemaker carved up the Wildcats for 313 passing yards and four touchdowns, while Caleb Hawkins added 175 rushing yards and three scores, giving Oklahoma State answers in every phase and leaving Kansas State chasing the game almost immediately.
For the Wildcats, the bigger concern was how little resistance they offered on either side of the ball. Blake Barnett and Dillon Duff combined for multiple interceptions, and the run game never provided much relief, averaging just 3.3 yards per carry. One bad afternoon can happen, but this kind of collapse raised questions well beyond the final margin. [Read more 🡒]
Kansas State Still Has No Answer At QB After Another Loss
Kansas States quarterback situation has become the defining issue of a three-game skid, and the latest loss only added to the uncertainty. The Wildcats have now gone through four different starters in four games, a jarring stretch for a team trying to find any kind of offensive rhythm while Avery Johnson remains sidelined.
Collin Klein said after the setback to Oklahoma State that Dillon Duff and Blake Barnett were both evaluated and will keep getting chances, which leaves the position in a state of constant audition. Johnson, who had been the steady presence before the injury, is unlikely to play again this season, though there is still the possibility he could pursue a fifth year of eligibility under the new NCAA rules. [Read more 🡒]