Big 12 Basketball Stock Watch: Who’s Rising, Who’s Sliding After a Wild Saturday
Another Saturday, another round of chaos in Big 12 basketball. We’re now deep into the third week of conference play, and the league is already living up to its reputation as a gauntlet.
Saturday delivered everything from upsets to statement wins to teams trying to find their footing in a stacked conference. Let’s break it down with two teams to buy, two to sell, and one to hold steady.
📈 Buy: UCF Knights
Yes, UCF took a loss. But don’t let the final score fool you-this team showed it can hang with the best.
The Knights went toe-to-toe with No. 1 Arizona, and it wasn’t smoke and mirrors.
It was Themus Fulks putting on a show with 30 points and eight assists on a hyper-efficient night, and it was a team that rebounded with purpose, outworking Arizona on the offensive glass 14-9.
What’s been quietly brewing in Orlando is a defense that knows how to close out on shooters. UCF came into the weekend with one of the top three-point defenses in the Big 12, and they backed it up by holding the Wildcats to just 3-of-13 from deep. That’s not a fluke-that’s a trend.
At 3-2 in Big 12 play, the Knights are more than holding their own in their first season in the league. And with matchups against a struggling Iowa State team, followed by Colorado and Arizona State, the schedule gives them a real shot to build momentum.
This group is gritty, balanced, and growing fast. If they keep this trajectory, don’t be surprised if they’re still playing meaningful basketball come March.
📉 Sell: Iowa State Cyclones
It’s been a rough week in Ames. The Cyclones came in riding high at No. 2 in the AP poll, but reality hit hard.
First, they got run out of the gym at Kansas. Then came Saturday’s loss to Cincinnati, marking the Bearcats’ first win over a Top 2 team since 2012.
That’s not the kind of history you want to be on the wrong side of.
The issue? Slow starts-and it’s become a pattern.
In their last eight games against power opponents, Iowa State has trailed at the 10-minute mark in every single one. The numbers speak for themselves:
- Down 23-13 at Cincinnati
- Down 22-14 at Kansas
- Down 22-16 vs. Oklahoma State
- Down 13-11 at Baylor
- Down 17-15 vs.
West Virginia
- Down 15-12 vs.
Iowa
- Down 18-16 at Purdue
- Down 16-14 vs. Syracuse
That’s not just a trend-it’s a red flag. You can’t keep digging holes and expect to climb out every time, especially not in a conference as unforgiving as the Big 12.
The Cyclones tried to rally against Cincinnati but couldn’t close the gap. And despite being second in the league in turnover margin, they finished -4 on Saturday.
That’s not going to cut it.
There’s still talent on this roster, no doubt. But right now, Iowa State looks more like a team trying to rediscover itself than one ready to contend for the top.
🤝 Hold: Texas Tech Red Raiders
Texas Tech needed a quality win, and they got one. Down nine with under nine minutes to play, the Red Raiders rallied to take down a tough BYU squad at home.
It was the kind of gritty, emotional comeback that can flip a team’s confidence switch. And they didn’t just win-they outshot BYU from beyond the arc and controlled the glass, two areas that often decide games in the Big 12.
Still, let’s pump the brakes before we go all-in.
Tech came into this one 1-4 against ranked opponents, with the lone win over Duke. Losses to Illinois, Purdue, Arkansas, and Houston had raised questions about whether this team could close against top-tier competition. Saturday’s win helps answer that-but it doesn’t erase the depth concerns.
The Red Raiders’ top five can hang with anyone, led by the trio of Anderson, Watts, and Toppin. But beyond that?
The bench production just isn’t there yet. If Tech can develop more reliable rotation pieces, they’ll be a real threat.
Until then, they’re a “hold”-dangerous, but still incomplete.
📈 Buy: Kansas Jayhawks
If you thought Kansas was slipping after a 1-2 start in league play, think again. The Jayhawks have now strung together back-to-back dominant wins, first dismantling No.
2 Iowa State and then cruising past Baylor. That’s a combined 39-point margin across two games against quality opponents.
What stood out Friday night was how Kansas responded to adversity. After jumping out to a 19-4 lead, they let Baylor claw back and briefly take control before flipping the switch in the second half with a 15-3 run. That’s the kind of resilience you want to see from a young team still finding its rhythm.
Freshman Darryn Peterson was electric, dropping 26 points on 11-of-13 shooting. Flory Bidunga was a force inside with 23 points, 11 boards, and five blocks. When those two are clicking, Kansas looks like a team no one wants to see in March.
With Colorado and Kansas State up next, the Jayhawks have a real chance to keep stacking wins. The early stumbles seem to be in the rearview mirror.
📉 Sell: Kansas State Wildcats
The numbers don’t lie. Kansas State is off to an 0-5 start in Big 12 play for the first time since the 1996-97 season. And Saturday’s 84-83 loss to Oklahoma State was another gut punch.
It was a game the Wildcats had every chance to win. But once again, turnovers told the story.
Kansas State coughed it up 16 times while forcing just seven. That’s a brutal margin in a one-point game.
Add in a lopsided free throw disparity-24 attempts for the Cowboys compared to just five for the Wildcats-and it’s clear this team isn’t getting to the line or protecting the ball the way it needs to.
Anthony Roy led the way with 23 points, and Vyctorius Miller had a chance to be the hero, hitting three clutch free throws with 2.8 seconds left. But in the end, it wasn’t enough.
Head coach Jerome Tang insists the team is “close.” But close to what?
That’s the question right now. Until the turnovers get cleaned up and the Wildcats start finishing games, they’re a sell.
🤝 Hold: West Virginia Mountaineers
West Virginia might be the most quietly intriguing team in the Big 12 right now. Expectations were modest coming into the season, but at 3-2 in conference play after a win over Colorado, the Mountaineers are proving they’re no pushover.
Saturday’s game was a rollercoaster. WVU led by 12 early, fell behind by one midway through the second half, then ripped off a 13-3 run to take control for good. Treysen Eaglestaff was clutch with 22 points, and Honor Huff stepped up late, scoring nine of his 14 in the final seven minutes.
The Mountaineers shot 52% from the field and held Colorado to just 39%, while also dominating the glass 38-22. That’s a winning formula.
Looking ahead, West Virginia has only one ranked opponent in its next five games-an upcoming trip to Arizona. If they keep playing with this kind of poise and physicality, they’ve got a real chance to keep climbing the standings.
Bottom Line:
The Big 12 is as deep and unpredictable as ever.
UCF is emerging as a legitimate threat, Kansas is back in rhythm, and Texas Tech is knocking on the door. Meanwhile, Iowa State and Kansas State have some soul-searching to do.
And West Virginia? They might just be the sleeper no one saw coming.