Kansas’ preseason path, at least through ESPN’s Football Power Index, was never going to be smooth.
The model pegged the Jayhawks for a 3-9 finish before the season, assigning them a 2.8 FPI rating and placing them 13th among the 16 Big 12 teams. It also mapped out a schedule loaded with a few clear opportunities and a whole lot of danger.
The easiest game on paper came first, and Kansas handled it exactly the way the projection expected. ESPN gave the Jayhawks a 99% chance to beat Long Island University, and Kansas rolled to a 51-6 win.
From there, the margin for error shrank fast. Against Missouri, Kansas was given only a 28% shot, and the Tigers backed up that view with a 38-21 win.
The trip to London to face Arizona State was one of the tighter calls in the preseason model, with Kansas listed at 47.4% to win. The Jayhawks came up short there too, losing 24-17 and falling to 1-2.
A bye week now gives way to a home game against Middle Tennessee State, which stood out as Kansas’ second-best win probability on the schedule. FPI had the Jayhawks at 94.1% in that matchup.
After that, though, the Big 12 grind really tightens the screws. Kansas was given just a 23.4% chance to win at Utah, then 37.4% against Kansas State.
A home date with Baylor was closer, with the Jayhawks sitting at 45.7%. The road trip to TCU also leaned against Kansas, with the model giving the Horned Frogs a 32.7% edge.
One of the more favorable conference projections came against UCF. Kansas was given a 61% chance to win that one, making it the only remaining Big 12 game before the season in which the model had the Jayhawks above 50%.
The final stretch was hardly gentle. ESPN’s preseason numbers had Kansas at 49.6% at West Virginia, 28.1% against BYU and 42% at Oklahoma State.
That’s the road FPI saw before the season began. Kansas has already shown it can beat the model in spots, but it still has most of its conference schedule ahead.
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