Kansas gets back on the field this week with a chance to steady itself, and ESPN’s numbers say the Jayhawks should handle it.
After finishing up their final bye week of the regular season, Kansas is now staring at nine straight games without a break. The Jayhawks are off to a shaky 1-2 start and will try to use Saturday’s meeting with Middle Tennessee State as a reset before Big 12 play ramps up again. KU is already 0-1 in league action after the loss to Arizona State in London, and Lance Leipold is trying to get his group pointed in the right direction.
The matchup looks favorable on paper. Sportsbooks have Kansas as a near three-touchdown favorite, and ESPN’s Matchup Predictor leans even harder toward the Jayhawks. The computer model gives Kansas an 89.2% chance to win, with Middle Tennessee at 10.8%.
The Blue Raiders aren’t coming in empty-handed, though. They’re 2-2 with wins over Murray State and Nevada, along with losses to South Marshall and Jacksonville State on the road. That still leaves them as a live, if long-shot, underdog in Lawrence.
Middle Tennessee does have a few names to know. Quarterback Roman Gagliano has thrown for 832 yards and eight touchdowns, running back Antonio Martin has 345 rushing yards at 5.4 yards per carry, and wide receiver Cam'ron Lacy has 29 catches for 310 yards.
There’s also some evidence that the Blue Raiders can make things uncomfortable. In their two wins, they’ve given up just 17 points and 285 yards per game, which means Kansas can’t treat this like a walkthrough - especially with an offense that has looked uneven.
Even so, the expectation is pretty clear. ESPN’s model sees this as a tough hill for MTSU to climb, and Kansas should be the team walking away with the win. The bigger conversation, as always, is what the Jayhawks look like once the schedule stiffens again against more dangerous Big 12 opponents.
In Other News...
Kansas May Have Found A New Identity At The Perfect Time
Kansas spent Saturday looking like a team that might finally know who it wants to be. The offense rolled to a program-record 706 yards in the 55-0 win over Middle Tennessee State, but the more revealing part of the afternoon was how firmly the defense controlled the game while the passing attack and ground game kept the other sideline buried. Through the first four games, first-year coordinator D.K. McDonalds unit has been the steadier side of the ball, even as the offense has gone through its own uneven stretches.
Middle Tennessee never found a rhythm, forced into repeated punts and kept from building any real momentum once the game settled in. For Kansas, that kind of balance matters because it suggests the Jayhawks may have found a version of themselves that can travel better than a shootout script, especially when the offense is clicking and the defense is no longer just trying to hold on. The question now is whether this was a one-week statement or the start of something more durable. [Read more 🡒]
Kansas Just Delivered The Kind Of Win Fans Needed
Kansas finally got the kind of comfortable Saturday it has been chasing, rolling past Middle Tennessee 55-0 in a performance that touched every part of the roster. Dylan Edwards gave the offense an early jolt with 137 rushing yards and three touchdowns, while Isaiah Marshall helped keep the tempo moving with production on the ground and through the air. It was the sort of one-sided win that lets a team breathe a little, build some confidence and see its playmakers make a difference.
The bigger picture was just as encouraging on the other side of the ball, where Kansas turned in a suffocating defensive effort and allowed only seven first downs. Middle Tennessee never found much rhythm, managing just 3.2 yards per play, and the Jayhawks left no doubt by finishing the day with a shutout. For a program that has been looking for cleaner, more complete outings, this was the kind of response fans had been waiting to see. [Read more 🡒]
Bill Self Pushes Back As Kansas Faces A Scheduling Squeeze
Kansas footballs trip to London for the Union Jack Classic brought a different kind of reward than a win, with the Jayhawks leaving Arizona State behind in the box score but coming home with $2.7 million and a dose of international exposure. The football program got a rare showcase overseas, and it was enough to stir the usual offseason conversation about what kinds of opportunities are worth the disruption when a school is trying to compete across multiple sports.
Bill Self, though, made clear he does not see that same model fitting his basketball program. With the season calendar already tight, the Kansas coach said international games during the winter would create too many scheduling headaches, even as he talked through the Jayhawks upcoming nonconference and Big 12 slate. He also weighed in on the leagues shifting basketball schedule, a reminder that Kansas is navigating not just opponents, but the format of the season itself. [Read more 🡒]