Kansas’ season has already shown both sides of the coin, and ESPN Analytics is treating that split personality like the clearest clue to what comes next.
The Jayhawks opened with a statement in week one, rolling past LIU 51-6 and spending the final three quarters in cruise control. That game also brought a few encouraging first impressions, especially from newcomers like wideout Nik McMillan.
One week later, though, the Border Showdown flipped the script. Kansas’ offense went quiet, the defensive front held up its end, and Missouri kept finding cracks in KU’s secondary on the way to a 38-21 loss.
That leaves the bigger question hanging as conference play approaches: what kind of team is Kansas really?
If you trust ESPN’s numbers, the answer is somewhere between promising and precarious. The Jayhawks’ chances of reaching six wins sit at 34.8%, which lines up with the sense that this roster is still fighting uphill. Recent reports have painted a picture of a team with funding near the bottom of power-conference football, and until that changes in a major way, a bowl berth is the most realistic target.
ESPN currently projects Kansas to finish 5-7, a record that would feel painfully familiar around Lawrence. Lance Leipold has posted 5-7 marks in each of the last two seasons.
The remaining schedule gives Kansas both opportunities and obstacles. The Jayhawks still have Arizona State on September 19 at a neutral site, Middle Tennessee at home on October 4, then a stretch that includes Utah on October 10, Kansas State on October 17, Baylor on October 24, TCU on October 31, UCF on November 7, WVU on November 14, BYU on November 21 and Oklahoma State on November 28.
On paper, that isn’t a gauntlet full of world-beaters. But Kansas hasn’t looked especially convincing either, which makes the 34.8% odds feel like a fair snapshot for now. One surprise either way could move that number quickly.
There is also no shortage of scheduling quirks working against Leipold’s group. The overseas trip for the Union Jack Classic landing in week three instead of week zero stands out, and the season finishes with nine straight games. That is a heavy ask.
Still, Kansas has spent the past two seasons being a bounce away from four straight bowl trips. If a few more of those close calls break the Jayhawks’ way this time, Leipold’s third bowl appearance in six years is still within reach.
In Other News...
Kansas Secondary Suddenly Has No Time To Fix This Problem
Kansas defensive secondary came out of the Missouri game with a clear assignment and not much time to ease into it. Defensive coordinator D.K. McDonald said the group needs to tighten up its coverage after the Tigers threw for 292 yards, a performance that exposed how much pressure the Jayhawks defense still has to create from the back end.
McDonald wants the corners playing more aggressively at the line of scrimmage, using their hands and positioning to disrupt quarterbacks before routes can develop and to give the pass rush a better chance to finish plays. He pointed to Austin Alexander as the model for that approach, while also stressing that the fix is not only about scheme but about winning individual matchups snap after snap. [Read more 🡒]
Kansas Heads To London With A Rare Chance Fans Will Feel
Kansas is heading into an unusual stage this week, one that feels bigger than a normal nonconference road trip. Associate head coach and offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki sounded genuinely energized about the Jayhawks matchup with Arizona State at Wembley Stadium in London, where the program gets a chance to play in front of an international audience and help introduce American football to fans far from Lawrence. The team was set to arrive in London ahead of the game, which kicks off at 11 a.m. Central, giving the trip a different kind of buildup than the usual college football routine.
Kotelnicki framed the moment as more than just another game on the schedule, and that is part of what makes this one stand out for Kansas. Wembley carries its own kind of weight as a stage, and the Jayhawks know they are part of a rare showcase that comes with history, curiosity and a little bit of novelty attached. What happens on the field still matters most, of course, but the setting alone gives Kansas a chance to be seen in a way its fans do not often get to experience. [Read more 🡒]
Kansas Fans Have A New Reason To Fear A Football Ceiling
A new Athletic report put a blunt number on the gap Kansas football is trying to climb. Among the sports heavyweights, the top programs are spending in a different stratosphere on NIL compensation, while Kansas and several other Big 12 schools are working with far leaner payrolls as they try to keep pace in recruiting and roster building.
For Jayhawks fans, the concern is less about one cycle than the ceiling this kind of divide creates over time. The current NIL setup is already drawing criticism for widening the gap between the have and have-not programs, and the NCAA has been slow to catch up, which is why some around the sport are pushing for the power conferences to take more direct control of athlete compensation. [Read more 🡒]