Kansas football is already staring at a tough climb after a 1-2 start, and ESPN’s numbers are not doing the Jayhawks any favors.
After the first quarter of the season, the picture looks bleak enough that even reaching a bowl game is becoming a serious question. ESPN’s Football Power Index projects Kansas to finish 4-8, which would leave Lance Leipold’s team well short of the six-win mark that has become the baseline.
The start hasn’t helped. The Border Showdown showed a clear gap between Kansas and its archrival, and the Union Jack Classic served as another reminder of the same problems that have dragged the Jayhawks down over the past two seasons.
ESPN’s FPI is designed to forecast the rest of the year by measuring team strength and running 20,000 simulations based on current results and the remaining schedule. In this case, the model sees more losses than wins ahead for KU.
Kansas’ path gets no easier from here. The Jayhawks have just one non-Big 12 game left, and that comes against Middle Tennessee on October 4 at home. If Kansas handles the Blue Raiders, it would move to 2-2 before the schedule gets significantly harsher.
From there, the challenge ramps up fast: No. 15 Utah on the road on October 10, then Kansas State in the Sunflower Showdown on October 17. A road trip to Utah looks like a likely loss, which would make the matchup with the Wildcats pivotal.
If Kansas can beat Kansas State, it would be sitting at 3-3 and still in the hunt. Baylor at home on October 24 would then offer another chance to get to four wins, and TCU on October 31 suddenly looms as a massive swing game.
Beyond that, the margin for error gets thin. UCF at home on November 7 looks winnable, which would get Kansas to five. But the idea of the Jayhawks also taking down both TCU and Kansas State is a big ask.
The rest of the slate only gets tougher. Kansas still has road games at West Virginia on November 14 and Oklahoma State on November 28, plus home dates with No.
9 BYU on November 21 and UCF. Under Rich Rodriguez, WVU looks improved, BYU is expected to be in the playoff mix, and Oklahoma State remains hard to pin down after an uneven start that included a loss to Tulsa but wins over No.
6 Oregon and Murray State.
For now, the math points Kansas toward another frustrating finish unless the Jayhawks start stacking wins quickly.
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Kansas Wasted A Winnable Game In The Most Frustrating Way
Kansas had enough yardage, enough first downs and enough defensive resistance to make a trip to Wembley Stadium feel like a game it could have taken control of. Instead, the Jayhawks left with a 24-17 loss to Arizona State after repeatedly coming away empty in the spots that matter most, turning 414 total yards into far too few points and letting drives stall before they could change the flow of the afternoon.
The frustration for Kansas was in the details, from a 6-for-16 day on third down to an offense that could move the ball but not finish possessions. Arizona State did not exactly light it up either, with the Jayhawks defense holding it to 228 yards and forcing plenty of long down-and-distance situations, but Kansas could not cash in on its own chances and never quite escaped the sense of a game left there for the taking. [Read more 🡒]
Tre Whites Return Just Complicated Kansas Next Roster Decision
Tre White is back in the picture for Kansas after being granted immediate eligibility to return for his second season with the program and fifth college season. Bill Self confirmed Whites return and pointed to the offseason work he put in with the Miami Heat in NBA Summer League, a reminder that Kansas has been tracking his development even as his status remained unsettled.
Whites return also matters because it closes out the Jayhawks scholarship count for the 2026-27 roster, which is the kind of detail that can ripple beyond one player. If the rest of the offseason develops the way Kansas is hoping, that final spot may not stay simple for long, leaving Self and his staff to sort through what comes next. [Read more 🡒]
Isaiah Marshall Is Giving Kansas Fans A Tougher QB Debate Than Expected
Isaiah Marshall has only been Kansas quarterback for three starts, but he has already made the position a much livelier discussion than most expected. The Jayhawks are 1-2 in those games, and Marshall has put up 649 passing yards with five touchdowns and three interceptions while showing the kind of arm talent that can change a drive in a hurry.
The upside has been obvious enough to keep fans interested, even with the rough edges still showing. Marshalls completion rate sits at 53.7 percent, a number that reflects the inconsistency that has cropped up alongside the splash plays and turnovers, leaving Kansas with a real debate about how much patience to give him as the season keeps moving. [Read more 🡒]