Kansas football is heading into 2026 with more uncertainty than certainty, and the schedule offers a pretty clear road map for how that season could play out. The biggest shift is obvious: Jalon Daniels is gone, along with the core of players that helped lift the program out of obscurity. That leaves a lot hanging over the quarterback spot and a lot of pressure on whoever ends up taking the first snap.
There are still reasons for optimism, though. Running back looks like one of the stronger areas on the roster, with Dylan Edwards, Yasin Willis, and Jalen Dupree giving the offense real depth in the backfield. The bigger questions are on the other side of the ball and up front: whether the defense has added enough athleticism and talent, and whether the offensive line can hold up against pass rushers long enough to keep the quarterback upright.
The nonconference slate starts in a way that should tell us plenty. Kansas opens with Long Island, hosts Missouri, and then heads to London to face Arizona State before wrapping up that portion of the schedule against Middle Tennessee.
That Arizona State game looms as the early measuring stick. The best-case path has Kansas beating the Sun Devils and sitting at 3-1 after the nonconference stretch, but a 2-2 start feels more realistic.
Still, the matchup matters because ESPN has Arizona State ninth in the Big 12 preseason rankings and Kansas 12th. A win there would give KU some early confidence and a head start in conference play.
The Big 12 schedule has its own quirks. Kansas does not play Iowa State, a team the Jayhawks probably should be facing every year, and that omission matters because the Cyclones are expected to have a down season.
On the flip side, KU gets one of the tougher sequences you can draw: after those first four games, the Jayhawks go on the road for back-to-back games at Utah and Kansas State. ESPN has Utah third in the preseason Big 12 rankings and Kansas State fourth, so that stretch could be brutal.
After that, the path eases some.
Kansas does dodge the conference’s top team, Texas Tech, but it also only gets two of the four teams ranked below it: UCF and West Virginia. ESPN has West Virginia last in the league, though Athlon Sports slots the Mountaineers much higher at 10th. Athlon also has Kansas a bit higher than ESPN does, placing the Jayhawks 11th.
That middle section of the schedule is where Kansas has to make its move. West Virginia, UCF, and Baylor all look like games the Jayhawks can win.
TCU and Oklahoma State sit in that same category too, much like Arizona State: if things break the right way, Kansas has a shot. BYU arrives late in the season, and that one is likely to be a loss.
If you stack the schedule out honestly, the cleanest read is this: Kansas should beat Long Island, Middle Tennessee, and probably UCF, while Missouri, Utah, Kansas State, and BYU look like likely losses. That would leave the Jayhawks sitting at three wins and four losses before the rest of the toss-up games are sorted out.
The real swing comes in those five matchups against Arizona State, West Virginia, Baylor, TCU, and Oklahoma State. Kansas probably needs at least three wins from that group to make the season look like a step forward.
Seven wins feels like a stretch given all the unknowns. Six is possible if the Jayhawks stay healthy and avoid the kind of mistakes that can sink a season.
Another 5-7 finish, though, is probably the most realistic outcome right now.
Anything below that would mean the team didn’t close the gap the way it hoped. And if Kansas does manage to get to four wins or more, the path still exists for a bowl push - especially if a quarterback emerges and the Jayhawks keep the penalties, turnovers, and injuries from piling up.
In Other News...
Kansas Defensive Front Just Took A Blow Before Fall Camp
Kansas defensive front took an early hit this spring when projected starting nose tackle TreVon McAlpine went down during workouts. Head coach Lance Leipold later confirmed the injury, and it leaves the Jayhawks looking for answers at a spot they had penciled in as a key part of the rotation heading into fall camp.
McAlpine arrived from Tulane with the expectation that he would help anchor the middle of the defense, so the loss changes both the depth chart and the tone of the preseason for Kansas. The staff is now sorting through the next steps for the position while also hoping there is still a path for McAlpine to be back in a future season. [Read more 🡒]
Kansas Suddenly Has An Unexpected Quarterback Possibility
Kansas has already started sketching out its quarterback picture for 2026, with Lance Leipold planning to use Cole Ballard and Isaiah Marshall in different packages. That approach suggests the Jayhawks are preparing for a more flexible offense, one that can lean into different skill sets instead of asking one quarterback to do everything.
There may be another twist to the picture, though, if Tommy Castellanos gets the outcome he is pursuing. A dual-threat quarterback with a reputation for leadership, Castellanos could suddenly become part of the conversation for a Kansas team that is still mapping out its future at the position, adding an unexpected layer to a room that already looks set to be more than a simple one-man race. [Read more 🡒]
Kansas Suddenly Faces A Defensive Line Question Early In Camp
Kansas defensive line took an immediate hit early in camp when TreVon McAlpine went down with a season-ending ACL injury, leaving a hole that had to be addressed fast. Defensive coordinator D.K. McDonald has already started framing the loss as a chance for someone else to claim a bigger role, and the first few practices have given him a few names to monitor.
Eamon Smalls and Marcus Calvin have been among the interior players drawing positive mention, while the edge group has also flashed some depth with Leroy Harris III and Garrett Martin working into the mix during camp sessions. For a unit that had to absorb an abrupt setback before the season even got rolling, the next stretch of practices will go a long way toward showing whether Kansas can turn an early problem into useful depth. [Read more 🡒]