Kansas has spent most of the Bill Self era living near the top of the bracket. That’s why On3’s latest “way too early” projection landing the Jayhawks as a No. 6 seed in the South Region feels like such a jolt.
Under Self, Kansas has never gone into the NCAA Tournament seeded lower than No. 7, and that happened only once during the 2024-25 season. More often than not, the Jayhawks have been a No. 1 seed - 10 times in 23 seasons - which has long been the standard in Lawrence.
But the stretch since the 2022 national title has been rougher. Kansas has failed to win more than one game in each of its last four NCAA Tournaments and has seen the Big 12 crown drift to Houston, Iowa State and Arizona.
Last season’s 67-65 loss to St. John’s only added to the frustration, especially with the season-long Darryn Peterson storyline and the turnover caused by transfer portal departures.
This year’s roster was supposed to reset the tone.
Self made it a point to address the fit issues that surfaced last season between 5-star Darryn Peterson and the rest of the group. The additions of Leroy Blyden Jr. and Taylen Kinney could help Kansas lean into a combo-guard look, with Blyden, Kinney and 5-star freshman Tyran Stokes all capable of bringing the ball up.
The frontcourt got an upgrade too. Keanu Dawes brings proven Big 12 production, while center Christian Reeves will compete with sophomore Paul Mbiya for the starting job once Mbiya is cleared after shoulder surgery.
There’s depth behind them as well. Dennis Parker Jr., freshman guard Luke Barnett and the expected growth of Kohl Rosario are all part of the bench support Kansas hopes will stabilize the rotation.
Still, On3’s projection has Kansas opening with a win over either No. 11 Oklahoma or Villanova, then falling to No. 3 Louisville.
The main reason for the lower seed is experience, or the lack of it. Kansas would have only one player with meaningful Big 12 experience in Dawes, and even he has just one year as a conference starter. Nine of the 14 players on the roster are underclassmen, which suggests a team still learning on the fly.
Among the upperclassmen, Mbiya has played only one season, Reeves’ most notable starting experience came at College of Charleston after coming off the bench at Duke and Clemson, and Will Thengvall is viewed as a depth option. Parker has two years at NC State, but his real breakout came last season at VCU.
Kansas is still rebuilding, and more talent could still be added before the offseason runs out. But in this new era, even for a program like the Jayhawks, nothing comes with a guarantee.
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