TCU and Kansas arrive at Saturday’s meeting with identical 3-4 records and matching 1-3 marks in Big 12 play, but their shared date with Baylor points to two very different styles.
The Horned Frogs handled the Bears 17-6 in Waco on Oct. 17.
Kansas turned around a week later and edged Baylor 25-24 in Lawrence, surviving with a blocked field goal in the final seconds. The point totals tilt toward TCU, but the numbers behind those wins tell a much more complicated story.
Kansas leaned on a grind-it-out approach against Baylor, piling up 421 yards on 86 plays and controlling the ball for 36:41. Dylan Edwards carried the load with 156 yards on 30 rushes, and the Jayhawks added 212 yards through the air.
TCU took the opposite path, managing just 33 rushing yards while throwing for 294. Four plays of at least 25 yards produced 165 of the Frogs’ 327 total yards, including Jordan Dwyer’s catches of 67 and 42 yards.
That contrast is what makes the matchup interesting. TCU’s offense has been built around explosives, while Kansas was able to keep working Baylor over with balance and possession.
On defense, TCU was the tighter unit against the Bears, allowing only three plays of 20 or more yards on 87 snaps, a rate of 3.4%. Kansas allowed five such plays on 66 snaps, or 7.6%.
The Frogs were especially effective against Baylor’s run game, holding the Bears to 54 yards and 1.6 yards per carry. But TCU also ran it only 34 times, far fewer than Kansas’ 56 rushing attempts against Baylor, which again highlights how differently the two teams won.
Third down offered another split. TCU went 7 of 16 on offense and limited Baylor to 6 of 21.
Kansas converted 5 of 19 and allowed Baylor to go 5 of 15. The Jayhawks bailed themselves out by going 5 of 8 on fourth down, while TCU never tried one.
Instead, the Frogs punted eight times, and five of those were downed inside the 20.
Red-zone efficiency tilted toward TCU, too. Baylor settled for one field goal in three trips against the Frogs, while Kansas allowed touchdowns on both of Baylor’s red-zone possessions.
The turnover battle went Kansas’ way in its game with Baylor, even though the Jayhawks still won. Kansas lost the margin 2-1, including a 42-yard pick-six by Baylor’s Devon Jordan. TCU won the turnover battle 2-1 in its game.
Both defenses also got to the quarterback. Baylor sacked Kansas quarterback Isaiah Marshall five times, while TCU’s Jaden Craig was taken down four times.
Against Baylor, TCU’s defense sacked DJ Lagway four times, with Koron Hayward responsible for three. Kansas brought Lagway down twice.
Field position was another area where TCU stood out. Baylor started its possessions against the Frogs at its own 20.8-yard line on average, including three drives that began inside the 10.
John Hoyet Chance’s punting helped keep the Bears pinned back. Against Kansas, Baylor’s average starting spot was its own 34-yard line, helped by kickoff returns of 51 and 36 yards.
Discipline also separated the two games. Baylor was flagged 12 times for 116 yards against Kansas, while the Jayhawks were penalized only three times for 30 yards.
The setting around the two games mattered, too. TCU’s 11-point win came on the road before 46,634 fans at McLane Stadium against a Baylor team carrying serious momentum.
Kansas won by one point at home at noon in front of 32,000 after Baylor had already taken a rivalry loss. And Kansas needed that last-second blocked 45-yard field goal to finish the job.
There’s still a reminder in both directions: one game does not map neatly onto the next. TCU beat Baylor, then lost 24-20 at home to West Virginia after a late fumble ended its final chance. So while the shared-opponent comparison gives the Frogs some encouraging signs, it does not settle what happens next.
Saturday brings a different backdrop, with TCU hosting Kansas at Amon G. Carter Stadium at 2:30 p.m.
CT on FS1. A Halloween blackout is planned, and the Frogs will need to give the home crowd a reason to lean into it.
The numbers from Baylor suggest TCU can make life difficult for Kansas, especially if the Frogs can keep generating explosive plays and limit Edwards on the ground. But Kansas has shown it can win in a different way, stacking runs, extending drives and squeezing out one more stop when it matters.
That is the matchup inside the matchup.
In Other News...
Kansas Opener Puts All Eyes On Tyran Stokes And One Newcomer
Kansas is about to start its nonconference schedule against Fordham, and the Jayhawks head into the opener with more curiosity than certainty after a pair of exhibitions against Duke and Louisville. Those tuneups gave Bill Self a first real look at a roster stocked with freshmen, including top recruit Tyran Stokes, while also offering early evidence that the new pieces are starting to settle in around a team still taking shape.
One of the more important additions is Purdue transfer Trey Kaufman-Renn, who Self expects to be ready for the season opener. Between Stokes early flashes and Kaufman-Renns arrival, Kansas has enough newness to make the first month worth watching closely, even as the staff keeps sorting out what this group can become once the games start counting for real. [Read more 🡒]
Kansas State Now Faces A Big 12 Future Without Brett Yormark
Brett Yormarks decision to step away as Big 12 commissioner eventually closes a significant chapter for a league that has spent the last few years in constant motion. Since taking over in August 2022, Yormark helped steer the conference through a major media-rights overhaul, oversaw its expansion to 16 teams and locked in tournament extensions and sponsorships that gave the league a more stable footing in a turbulent era.
For Kansas, the timing adds another layer to a future that already feels more unsettled than it used to. Yormark will remain in the post through January 2027, which gives the Big 12 a runway to sort out what comes next, but his exit still marks the end of a transformational stretch that reshaped the leagues identity and competitive landscape. The conferences leadership was quick to thank him for it, a sign of how much ground was covered during his tenure and how much still remains to be defined. [Read more 🡒]
Kansas Suddenly Has A Quarterback Concern Heading Into TCU
Kansas got a bit of new uncertainty at the most important position on the field as the injury report turned Isaiah Marshall from probable to questionable for the upcoming game against TCU. Marshall has started all seven games this season, but soreness and injuries have been part of the picture, and his status now leaves the Jayhawks waiting to see whether their offense will have its usual quarterback in place.
Cole Ballard and Chase Jenkins are the next options if Marshall cannot go, which adds a layer of urgency to a matchup Kansas had likely hoped to approach with more stability. For a team trying to keep its rhythm intact, the change in Marshalls outlook is the kind of late-week development that can alter a game plan quickly, and it leaves one of the biggest questions of the week hanging until kickoff nears. [Read more 🡒]