We’ve got a full slate of Week 11 college football games, and the betting board is loaded with spots worth a hard look.
Start with Kansas State at TCU, where the Wildcats are catching +10.5. That’s a number K-State hasn’t seen all season as a double-digit underdog, and it’s also the first time its over/under has landed below 45 at 44.5.
The market clearly expects the Horned Frogs’ defense to control things, but the over deserves attention. TCU should be able to move the ball on Kansas State.
Kansas is another Big 12 team drawing interest, with the Jayhawks getting +2.5 at West Virginia. That line feels light given what Kansas has done away from Lawrence under Lance Leipold.
The Jayhawks haven’t won, or covered a spread this small, in seven straight road games. They’ll likely need a big scoring day to stay in it, and West Virginia is putting up 37.2 points per game.
Missouri’s trip to Georgia comes with the Tigers getting +15.5, and that’s a number that asks a lot. Georgia just rolled Ole Miss 42-7 after last week’s shocking home loss to Auburn, and the Bulldogs have looked like the best team in the country since then. Missouri might be able to stay inside the number, but it won’t come easily.
My favorite college football bets of the week
- UNLV (+14.5) at New Mexico: Jason Eck and the Lobos have been one of the best stories in the country, and New Mexico’s rise into the top 25 has been fun to watch.
Still, that doesn’t mean the Lobos are built to beat everyone by three touchdowns. They lean on defense to win most of their games, and UNLV has scored at least 31 points in five of its past six.
Pick: UNLV.
- USC (+9.5) at Indiana: Taking USC on the road in a Big Ten game usually isn’t the kind of bet that pays off, but this setup feels different.
The Trojans are coming off a bye, and Indiana looks a little overrated despite its 8-1 record. The Hoosiers are 1-8 against the spread and haven’t covered as a home favorite all season.
USC has enough offense to keep this close. Pick: USC.
- Baylor (+7.5) at BYU: BYU hasn’t looked right since its upset of Notre Dame.
Over its last three games, the Cougars lost to UCF, barely survived Arizona State at home and then fell at Utah. Baylor, meanwhile, has been trending up under interim head coach Joe Klanderman.
If BYU doesn’t rediscover its best form, this one should stay tight. Pick: Baylor.
- Kansas (+2.5) at West Virginia: The Jayhawks don’t look equipped to get enough stops on the road, especially against a Mountaineers team averaging 263.6 rushing yards per game.
That’s a bad matchup for a Kansas defense that ranks 12th in the conference against the run. Kansas hasn’t scored more than 32 points against an FBS team this season, and it may need at least 40 here.
Pick: West Virginia.
- Houston (-10.5) at Colorado: Houston has won plenty this season, but it hasn’t been a strong team against the number.
The Cougars are 3-6 ATS and have covered only once as a favorite all year. With a defense that’s merely average, big margins haven’t come easy.
Colorado should be feisty enough to keep this one close at home. Pick: Colorado.
Last week: 2-3 (-1.1 units)
Overall: 27-23 (+2.5 units)
Other bets worth considering
- North Dakota State (-6.5) at Hawaii: The trip to Hawaii is never simple, but the Bison’s physical style travels well.
That toughness could be too much for the Rainbow Warriors. Lean: NDSU.
- Utah (-2.5) at Arizona: Utah keeps looking like a team on a mission.
The Utes are 9-0 and 8-1 against the spread, and there’s not much reason to expect a letdown after the Holy War. They’ve been locked in every week.
Lean: Utah.
- Wake Forest (+1.5) at SMU: Wake Forest deserves more respect at this point.
The Demon Deacons are 8-1, with the only loss coming against Miami, and they’ve covered seven straight. Lean: Wake Forest.
- Tennessee (-2.5) at Texas A&M: The question here is simple: what has Texas A&M done this season to make anyone confident in the Aggies? Lean: Tennessee.
- Michigan (+10.5) at Oregon: The last time a coach complained about Oregon’s roster spending, the Ducks responded by beating Oklahoma State 69-3.
Michigan could be walking into something similar after Kyle Whittingham made comparable remarks. Lean: Oregon.
Upset pick of the week
North Texas at UTSA (+150): UTSA’s 60-29 loss to FAU last week wasn’t pretty, but that game came on the road in the middle of the week. Now the Road Runners get extra rest and home-field advantage, and that matters at the Alamodome.
Jeff Traylor’s team has been nearly unbeatable there, going 33-5 at home since he took over. Neal Brown has North Texas playing well, but the Mean Green haven’t been one of the strongest road teams this season.
I like UTSA in the dome.
In Other News...
Kansas Freshmen Just Gave Fans A Dangerous Glimpse Against Kentucky
A nationally televised win over Kentucky gave Kansas fans an early look at what this freshman class can do when it starts clicking. Tyran Stokes set the tone with 23 points and four three-pointers, while Taylen Kinney kept the offense moving with eight assists in an 89-69 rout that felt as much about promise as it did about the final margin.
For Jayhawks supporters, the most interesting part may be where this goes next. Both Stokes and Kinney were heavily recruited by Kentucky, and they made a point of showing their value in a game that carried plenty of attention beyond the box score. If this is the kind of impact Kansas can get from its freshmen this early, the rest of the season could get very interesting in a hurry. [Read more 🡒]
Kansas Just Sent An Early Warning To The Rest Of College Basketball
The Champions Classic offered an early snapshot of where the college basketball powers stand, and Kansas left Madison Square Garden with the kind of win that tends to travel. While Michigan States upset of Duke grabbed plenty of attention, the Jayhawks handled Kentucky and reinforced why they are already being viewed as a team with the look of a serious national contender. It was the sort of opening-night result that can shape the conversation around a program before conference play even begins.
For Kansas, the win also came against a Kentucky team that still has obvious questions to sort through, especially at point guard and at power forward. Duke, meanwhile, was left to regroup after an uneven offensive showing despite its talent, while Emoni Bates continued to draw eyes as one of the early NBA draft names to watch with his improved outside shooting and assertive style. For the Jayhawks, the bigger takeaway is simple: they did not just survive a marquee stage, they used it to send a message. [Read more 🡒]
Tyran Stokes Just Gave Kansas Fans A Reason To Dream
Tyran Stokes gave Kansas plenty to feel good about in the Champions Classic, turning in a 23-point, 10-rebound effort in an 89-69 win over Kentucky. The freshman forward looked comfortable in a big setting, and Bill Self pointed to the way Stokes handled his emotions while still staying effective from start to finish.
For Stokes, the matchup carried extra weight. He grew up in Louisville and was recruited by Kentucky, so the stage had a little more meaning than most November games, and he said as much afterward while crediting his coaches for the confidence he showed in his shooting. For Kansas, the encouraging part is not just the performance itself, but the possibility that a young player already looks ready for nights when the spotlight is brightest. [Read more 🡒]