Kansas fans got a little more reason to breathe easy in ESPN’s latest FPI update, even if the number still doesn’t exactly scream certainty.
The Jayhawks are sitting at a 58.1% chance to make a bowl game, and ESPN’s projections have Kansas finishing 6-6. That would get Lance Leipold to a third bowl in six seasons, which is no small thing considering where the program was before he arrived. It also comes with some context that matters: Kansas is coming off back-to-back 5-7 seasons and has turned over a huge chunk of the roster, adding 30 new transfers and 19 freshmen while also reshuffling the coaching staff.
The strange part is that the overall forecast and the game-by-game outlook don’t line up all that cleanly. ESPN’s Matchup Predictor gives Kansas the following chances in each game:
Long Island University (H) September 4 (99%)
Missouri (H) September 11 (28%)
Arizona State (N) September 19, Union Jack Classic (47.4%)
Middle Tennessee (H) October 4 (94.1%)
Utah (A), October 10 (23.4%)
Kansas State (A), October 17 (37.4%)
Baylor (H), October 24 (45.7%)
TCU (A) October 31 (32.7%)
UCF (H) November 7 (61%)
WVU (A) November 14 (49.6%)
BYU (H) November 21 (28.1%)
Oklahoma State (A) November 28 (42.0%)
That slate makes the path to six wins look anything but straightforward. Kansas has a couple of near-locks on paper, but plenty of toss-up games and several matchups where the Jayhawks are the underdog. Still, ESPN’s model sees enough opportunities for KU to land in bowl territory.
The same update also paints a much dimmer picture in the conference and national races. Kansas is listed at 1.5% to win the Big 12, 2.8% to reach the College Football Playoff and .1% to win it all. In the Big 12, the Jayhawks’ FPI sits 13th, and their projected 6-6 finish ranks 11th in the league.
There are reasons the roster has some appeal. Kansas has a backfield with two power-conference-caliber runners in Dylan Edwards and Yasin Willis.
The receiving group could be led by Nik McMillan, who had seven games with at least 100 yards last season. And the defense looks more experienced than it has in recent years.
Even with that, the questions hanging over this team are obvious. Talent is one thing.
Cleaning up the issues that still exist on the field is another. Until Kansas starts answering those questions, the projection will remain just that - a projection.
For now, everything points back to the opener against LIU on September 4. That’s where the real answers begin.
In Other News...
Former Jayhawk Return Is About To Test Allen Fieldhouse
Kansas preseason tune-up schedule already has a little extra juice to it, with the Jayhawks set to finish their home-and-home exhibition series against Louisville in October. The first scrimmage is slated for Oct. 16, and then the matchup with the Cardinals comes five days later at Allen Fieldhouse, where the atmosphere figures to feel a little different with a familiar face on the other side.
Flory Bidungas return gives the game a built-in storyline beyond the usual October showcase. The former Kansas center is back in Lawrence with Louisville, and his presence should make for a revealing early test for a Jayhawks roster still trying to sort itself out before the games count. Kansas will also be using the preseason to get a read on its young pieces, including Darryn Peterson, whose first exhibition was interrupted by cramping and a second-half stint on the bench after an initially unclear injury. [Read more 🡒]
Kansas Just Got A Massive Melvin Council Jr. Eligibility Twist
Melvin Council Jr.s path to Kansas has already been unusual, and now it has taken another turn as he looks to extend his college career beyond the NCAAs new five-year limit. Council and his attorneys are arguing that his time at Kansas, St. Bonaventure and Wagner still leaves him short of four years at NCAA institutions, a case built around a career that also included two seasons at Monroe Junior College before he reached the Jayhawks.
The timing matters for Kansas because Council already used an NCAA waiver to play a fifth year in 2024, and the latest filing is aimed at opening the door to the 2026-27 season. If he succeeds, it could give Bill Self another chance to keep a veteran guard in the program, but for now the bigger question is whether the courts will buy the argument that his route through college basketball still leaves room for one more season. [Read more 🡒]
Former Jayhawk Carlton Bragg Is Suddenly Part Of KU's TBT Push
Carlton Braggs basketball journey has taken him across a long list of countries, but this summer has brought him back into a Kansas setting in a way few would have predicted. The former Jayhawk is suiting up for JHX Hoops, KUs alumni team in the 2026 TBT, after former teammates invited him to join the roster and give the group another experienced frontcourt piece.
Bragg has already made the most of the opportunity, including a notable showing against Kansas State as the alumni team has pushed deeper into the bracket. JHX Hoops now turns to a quarterfinal matchup with Wichita States AfterShocks on Monday, with the path ahead still very much alive and Bragg suddenly part of a KU run that has given him a fresh stage back in the spotlight. [Read more 🡒]