Kansas men’s basketball is heading into the fall with far less mystery than usual when it comes to the starting lineup.
With the roster KU has assembled, plus the hints head coach Bill Self and associate head coach Jeremy Case have dropped since the team got to campus for summer work, the early picture feels fairly sharp. The most likely opening group for Nov. 2 against Fordham on James Naismith Court appears to be Taylen Kinney, Leroy Blyden Jr., Tyran Stokes, Keanu Dawes and either Paul Mbiya or Christian Reeves.
The biggest point of debate is obvious: KU may open with two smaller guards. Kinney is listed at 6-foot-2 and Blyden at 6-foot-1, and that kind of backcourt can create problems against bigger, quicker opponents. It can also make life tougher on defense than what Kansas had last season.
Still, Self has already made clear that this is a look he expects to use often. He said KU will play with that backcourt “a lot,” and he also added, “I’ve usually done my best when I have combo guards.”
That fits the personnel. Kinney and Blyden both bring inside-out offensive ability, and both can work on or off the ball.
That gives Kansas options when it comes to initiating offense, and Stokes adds another layer with his unusual passing ability for a player at his size and position.
Case recently pointed to Blyden’s shooting as a major reason he matters so much to this team. As a freshman at Toledo, Blyden shot 77-for-189, or 40.7%, from 3-point range.
That kind of spacing is hard to take off the floor. If Kansas decides to get bigger, Blyden would be the likeliest guard to lose minutes, and that would raise real questions about where the outside shooting comes from.
Kinney has also shown he can hit shots, going 33.9% from deep across the regular season and playoffs in Overtime Elite last year, though his numbers changed a lot from one stretch to another. But with him, the job would ask for more than scoring.
He would have to handle the ball more and create for teammates. Stokes is still developing as a shooter, Dawes is a career 31.1% 3-point shooter, and Case said Dawes might be able to climb toward 38%.
The center spot, meanwhile, does not offer much shooting at all.
If Blyden is not in the starting five, then Kansas would likely turn to one of two 6-foot-6 wings: sophomore Kohl Rosario or senior transfer Dennis Parker Jr. Rosario has major upside, but he has not yet proven he can shoot consistently.
Parker made 60 of 159 3-pointers last season at Radford, good for 37.7%, though there is reason to wonder how much of that would carry over when he is no longer the primary offensive option and is also stepping up in competition. Before Radford, he was 21-for-75 from deep over two seasons at N.C.
State, which comes out to 28%.
A Kinney-Parker or Kinney-Rosario pairing would give KU more length and help on the glass, but Blyden’s proven production on the ball makes it hard to leave him out. All three guards should be major parts of the rotation, but Blyden looks like the first choice to start.
Dawes feels locked in at power forward. He brings experience at that spot and the kind of athleticism and versatility that should work well next to Stokes and whichever center Kansas uses. Davion Adkins is expected to back him up.
There is at least some temptation to go small and slide Dawes to center, then play with both combo guards and either Parker or Rosario on the wing alongside Stokes at power forward. That would give Kansas another way to attack, especially with the center situation still unsettled. But Self has said he would rather not go that route.
So the middle should belong to a 7-footer, and that spot remains one of the more interesting parts of the lineup discussion. Kansas did not chase a headline-grabbing center, likely avoiding the market for top post players and the price tags that came with it. Instead, the Jayhawks appear ready to sort things out between Paul Mbiya and Christian Reeves.
Reeves brings the bigger résumé, even if that résumé has been built in small pieces. He has four years of college basketball behind him, though he played just 4.5 minutes per game over his first three seasons.
He is also two inches taller and 10 pounds heavier than Mbiya. But Reeves has dealt with a long injury list, including ankle surgery that ended his sophomore year and a shoulder injury that slowed his redshirt junior season and required offseason surgery.
Because of that recovery, Reeves will not be a full-contact participant in practice until October. That gives Mbiya a real window to establish himself.
If Reeves needs time to get back into rhythm, Mbiya should have the inside track to start early in the season. And if he plays the way he did in those NCAA Tournament appearances against Cal Baptist and St.
John’s, he may not give the job back.
Kansas may not be done adding pieces, either. Self has said plainly that the roster is not finished, and KU could still add as many as two more players.
There has been reported interest in former Arkansas forward Malique Ewin, though he is not currently eligible and would apparently need some kind of legal action. JayhawkSlant also reported Wednesday that KU was involved with Serbian big man Mihailo Mušikić.
Either addition would matter. But even if one or both comes through, there is a decent chance they would have a hard time cracking the top five.
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