October brought a fresh round of chaos to ESPN’s FPI ratings, and Week 5 produced some of the biggest swings yet. The math-driven system was especially fond of blowouts this time around, which helped several teams climb fast while others tumbled hard after ugly losses.
Kansas got one of the week’s clearest boosts after hammering Middle Tennessee State 55-0. The 2-2 Jayhawks are still sitting at just a 37.7% chance to reach six wins, but the lopsided victory pushed them up from near the bottom of the Big 12 into the middle of the pack.
Wake Forest made an even louder statement in the ACC. Its 57-3 rout of Stanford sent the Deacons all the way up to fourth in the league, just one spot behind third place.
Wake is now third in the conference in playoff odds at 13.3%, with only Pitt and Miami ahead of it. That leaves Wake’s clearest path as simple as it gets: outlast Pitt and hope the ACC earns a second CFP berth.
Florida State, meanwhile, jumped 15 points after its win and now sits third in the ACC FPI rankings.
Missouri also cashed in on a dominant performance, using its 45-17 win over Florida to earn a notable rise in the SEC. Even so, the Tigers still have a long climb ahead.
Missouri is ranked 18th nationally and eighth in the conference, with a 10% shot at making the Playoff. That puts the Tigers well behind the SEC’s near-locks - Texas, Alabama and Georgia - and still a step back from LSU and Tennessee, who are fighting for what could be a fourth spot.
But with three top-10 opponents still left, Missouri has at least given itself a chance to keep climbing.
Virginia suffered the biggest drop of the week after getting blown out 38-7 by Florida State. The 3-2 Cavaliers fell from near the top of the ACC to ninth in the league. They’re still projected to reach a bowl, with an 81.3% chance of getting to six wins, but their playoff hopes have effectively disappeared at 0.6%.
Stanford’s situation looks even worse. After losing 57-3 to Wake Forest, the Cardinal sit at the bottom of the Power Four.
A few teams ranked ahead of the 2-3 Cardinal include Arkansas State, Jacksonville State, 1-3 Kennesaw State, Miami of Ohio and Colorado State. Stanford’s odds of reaching six wins are only 2.8%.
Cincinnati also took a serious hit after a 34-7 loss to Arizona. The Bearcats entered the week unbeaten, but at 4-1 their playoff chances are now down to 0.5%. Even getting to six wins and securing a bowl bid is far from certain, with FPI giving them a 75.9% chance to get there.
In Other News...
Jalon Daniels Showed Kansas Fans Exactly Why His NFL Debut Matters
Jalon Daniels got a chance on Sunday that carried plenty of weight beyond one game, stepping into the Tampa Bay lineup and giving Kansas fans a familiar sight: a quarterback who can create when plays break down. He completed 19 of 27 passes for 148 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions, and added 55 rushing yards on eight carries, showing the kind of mobility that made him such a dynamic presence in college.
Even in a 17-14 loss to the Green Bay Packers, Daniels helped push the Buccaneers to a late touchdown drive and gave the coaching staff enough to think about going forward. With Baker Mayfield sidelined by a thumb injury, the door opened for Daniels, and he handled the moment in a way that should keep this storyline alive as Tampa Bay sorts out its quarterback situation. [Read more 🡒]
Darryn Petersons NBA Debut Gave KU Fans Plenty To Parse
Darryn Petersons first NBA preseason outing gave Kansas fans a fresh look at what the former Jayhawk can bring at the next level, even if the box score was a little light on scoring. Playing 19 minutes for the Utah Jazz in a 109-97 win over Denver, Peterson started alongside Keyonte George, Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson and Jusuf Nurkic and still found ways to affect the game with rebounds, assists, a steal and some early pro-level responsibility.
Petersons shooting line was the obvious sore spot, but the reaction around him was more encouraging than the raw numbers suggested. Keyonte George and coach Will Hardy both came away sounding upbeat about how Peterson handled himself, pointing to the kind of decision-making and overall impact that can matter as much as points in a first preseason run. For Jayhawks following along, it was a small sample, but one that gave them plenty to chew on. [Read more 🡒]
Kansas Offense Showed Something Fans Needed To See Before Big 12 Play
A week before Big 12 play begins, Kansas needed more than a win over Middle Tennessee. It needed a performance that looked sustainable, physical and clean, and it got one in a 55-0 shutout that gave the Jayhawks their first blanking since 2008. The offense moved with purpose from the start, leaning on a run game that kept the chains moving and an offensive line that controlled the line of scrimmage throughout the afternoon.
Isaiah Marshall handled his role efficiently, finishing 13 of 22 for 161 yards and a touchdown without a turnover, while the ground game supplied the kind of balance Kansas has been searching for. The bigger takeaway was not just the score but the way the offense functioned across multiple contributors, with backup Chase Jenkins also making a strong first impression in his Kansas debut. For a team about to face a higher level of resistance, the timing of that kind of showing could hardly be better. [Read more 🡒]