Seth Lugo is giving the Royals a reason to at least reconsider how tightly they’re holding on to him.
Kansas City is heading toward a trade deadline sale with the club sitting 17 games below .500, and the front office figures to sort through a roster that includes expiring contracts and a few players in more volatile spots, especially relievers. The bigger names are trickier. The organization has reportedly viewed pitchers like Michael Wacha and Lugo as too important to move if the long-term target is a return to contention in 2027.
Lugo, though, is making that stance harder to defend by the day.
His season has been uneven, and before the All-Star break he was trending the wrong way. He had a pair of outings in which he didn’t get through five innings, and those two starts combined for eight earned runs.
Since the break, though, he’s looked much sharper. He opened the second half with six solid innings against the Padres, allowing just one earned run and one unearned run on four hits.
Then on Wednesday against the Giants, he turned in a seven-inning gem, giving up three runs on only three hits while striking out five.
That recent stretch matters because Lugo’s overall numbers don’t scream “untouchable.” His 4.36 ERA is solid enough on the surface, but it’s a far cry from the 3.00 mark he posted two seasons ago.
He’s 36 now, and while that doesn’t erase his track record, it does make the trade picture more complicated. Still, a couple of strong starts can change the conversation quickly, and that’s exactly what Lugo has done with the deadline closing in.
There is a clear case for Kansas City to keep him. Lugo and Wacha are both under contract next season, which matters in a rotation that could be without ace Cole Ragans for most of it and without impending free agent Kris Bubic for all of it. For a small-market club, having two rotation pieces already in place without adding payroll is no small thing.
Wacha’s appeal is easier to see. He just snapped an 11-year All-Star drought and looks on track for a fifth straight sub-4.00 ERA season, a steady run that has carried deep into the later stages of his career. He doesn’t overpower hitters, but he keeps producing, and that kind of reliability has real value.
Lugo’s case is murkier. Since that near Cy Young season in 2024, he’s regressed considerably, and the underlying numbers paint an even less flattering picture. He sits in the 10th percentile or lower in xERA and XBA, and outside of a 66th percentile walk rate and a 43rd percentile ground ball rate, most of his advanced metrics land in the bottom quarter of the league.
That’s why the Royals should at least be open to listening if the market is strong. His ability to keep working around trouble and post a mid-to-low 4.00s ERA this season is notable, but it also may be masking what’s underneath. If those recent outings help push his value higher, Kansas City could be better served by moving him before the regression catches up.
The Royals haven’t shut the door on that possibility. Earlier this month, Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic reported that the team would listen to offers for Lugo, though any return would reportedly need to be “massive”.
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