The Royals are headed into the offseason with a real question sitting right in the middle of their pitching plans: what do they do with Seth Lugo?
Kansas City has plenty to sort through, but Lugo stands out because his 2026 season gave them more doubts than answers. The veteran right-hander just wrapped up his 11th big league season and his third with the club, and it was the kind of year that forces a front office to pause before making any quick calls.
Lugo was supposed to be the guy who could get back closer to his 2024 level. That year, in his first season with the Royals, he delivered a 3.00 ERA over 206 2/3 innings, piled up a career-best 181 strikeouts and finished second in the American League Cy Young Award voting. That performance also earned him a $46 million, two-year contract extension from Kansas City.
The last two seasons have told a much different story. Lugo followed that strong 2024 campaign with a 4.15 ERA in 145 1/3 innings and 125 strikeouts in 2025, then slid further in 2026, posting a 5.17 ERA across 172 1/3 innings with 134 strikeouts.
His pitch mix wasn’t nearly as sharp either. Lugo’s nine-pitch arsenal just didn’t have the same bite, and Statcast numbers showed it: a 25.3% chase rate, an 18.7% whiff rate, a 17.8% strikeout rate and a .276 xBA. Hitters seemed to pick up the ball well out of his hand.
Even so, he still did one thing well. Lugo kept the walks down, finishing with a 7.2% walk rate.
That leaves Kansas City weighing whether there’s enough value left to keep him or move him. He was reportedly among the Royals’ possible trade chips at the deadline, though the return may not have been appealing enough to pull the trigger then. The same thinking could come into play again this winter if the team entertains trade offers.
Still, the Royals’ uncertain rotation depth and Lugo’s presence in the clubhouse could make a deal unlikely. He is two years removed from what was arguably the best season of his career, and the door is still open for there to be something left in the tank.
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