The Royals have a decision to make on Lucas Erceg, and it would be a mistake to let one bad season erase what he already showed in Kansas City.
When the club landed Erceg from the Athletics in 2024, the reaction was immediate. He arrived as a right-handed reliever in the middle of a breakout and only looked better once he got to K.C.
By 2025, he had settled in as a high-end setup arm, throwing 60 innings with a 2.64 ERA. More than 60% of his outings came in the eighth inning, he walked just 7% of the hitters he faced, struck out more than 19%, and finished with 0.9 fWAR.
At that point, he looked like a bullpen piece the Royals could build around.
Then 2026 happened.
Erceg’s season went sideways fast. He was inconsistent from the start and eventually got optioned to the minors in August.
The rough stretch was not subtle, either. From May 25 through his final appearance before the demotion on August 19, his ERA never fell below 5.00 and climbed above six by the time Kansas City sent him down.
His return in mid-September offered a small lift - five scoreless outings - but the damage was already done. He finished the year with a 5.59 ERA and a 5.00 FIP, a sign that the struggles were real and not just bad luck.
Kansas City leaned on him heavily once Carlos Estevez’s injury wiped out his season, and Erceg became the obvious reliever to move up the ladder. Nearly half of his appearances came in the ninth inning, which only made his downturn more visible. Now the Royals have to decide whether that version of Erceg is the one they believe in.
The financial piece should not be what pushes them away. Erceg is arbitration-eligible for the first time, and MLB Trade Rumors projects him at $2.3 million next season.
For a pitcher coming off the kind of year he had, that number might raise an eyebrow. It should not be enough to scare Kansas City off.
The Royals have already shown they’re willing to push their payroll beyond what many small-market teams do. And Erceg still has the kind of arm worth betting on.
He has already shown he can be elite, and at 31, he is still worth the risk at that price. Even if things go sideways again, $2.3 million is a manageable number, especially if Kansas City has to move on from him later.
There would also be interest elsewhere if the Royals decided to cut bait midseason. At that salary, plenty of teams would be willing to take a shot and try to fix him. And there’s still a path back to the 2025 version of Erceg, the one who looked like he had found something when he returned and strung together those five scoreless outings.
That is why giving up too early would be the costly move. The upside is still there, and the price is still reasonable.
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