The Royals are heading into the last stretch of the season with September roster expansion looming, and that opens the door for a closer look at the bullpen. One name that stands out as a likely call is Carlos Duran, the right-hander acquired in the Kris Bubic trade to the Dodgers.
At 6-foot-7, Duran fits the Royals’ preferred mold for late-inning arms: big frame, big velocity, and enough swing-and-miss to make people pay attention. He also comes with the kind of profile that makes development tricky.
The stuff is there. The command is not always there.
And that tension is exactly what makes him worth watching.
The easiest way to understand Duran is to compare him to Steven Cruz, another 6-foot-7 hard-throwing Royals reliever who has been one of the few bright spots in a rough bullpen, especially since the All-Star break. Cruz misses bats, doesn’t hand out many walks, and has been interesting all season, though the home run issue has shown up this year for the first time in his career.
Duran shares a lot of that same shape. He gets strikeouts, he hasn’t been burned much by the long ball, and he works with a similar mix.
He’s throwing a high-90s fastball, a slider, a sinker, and this year he has mixed in a changeup. Cruz, meanwhile, leans on a high-90s fastball, a slider, and a cutter, with both pitchers going to the fastball and slider more than 70% of the time.
The slider is the common thread, and it’s a good one. By tjstuff+, Cruz’s slider checks in at 115 and Duran’s at 113.
Overall, Cruz sits at 105 and Duran at 102. That’s still solid for Duran, but the gap shows up most clearly with the fastball, where Cruz grades much better.
That difference runs through the whole comparison: Duran is often in the same neighborhood as Cruz, just a step behind.
The biggest issue for Duran is the walks. His walk rate is 13.9%, and that lines up with an ugly 44.2 zone%. He’s been able to survive that in the minors because the stuff plays so hard, but that kind of strike-throwing profile is a tougher sell once he reaches the majors.
There’s also a concern that his stuff simply isn’t at Cruz’s level right now. Cruz’s pitches grade closer to league average or better across the board, while Duran’s results are more uneven.
The slider is strong. The fastball is the question mark.
That pitch is supposed to be the backbone of his arsenal, but it hasn’t generated enough whiffs, and he’s not living in the zone with it either.
Even with those issues, Duran’s overall strike percentage is 62.0, which is below league average, though his whiff rates help soften that. His fastball is the pitch with a zone rate hovering around 50%, and that’s part of why the profile still feels unfinished. Another small concern is his extension, which is a little low for someone his size, much like the same issue with Cruz.
What makes Duran more interesting now is the shift in his pitch usage since joining the Omaha Storm Chasers. In the Dodgers system this year, he was throwing his slider 43.3% of the time, his 4-seam fastball 31.5%, his sinker 19.5%, and his changeup 5.7%. In Omaha, that has changed to 32.4% sinker, 29.7% slider, 29.7% 4-seam, and 8.1% changeup.
That adjustment has helped him get in the zone more often with his fastballs, while also creating more chase. His slider has been especially nasty in the tiny Omaha sample, producing an 80% whiff rate and getting chased 57.1% of the time.
The sinker, now his main pitch early on with Omaha, has also helped him find the zone more often while still missing bats. But it’s all based on just three innings, so there’s not enough there yet to call it a real breakthrough.
The changeup is another pitch worth tracking. Duran has made real progress with it this year.
In 2025, his changeup carried a tjstuff+ value of 93. This year, it’s up to 103.
That gives him another plus offering, even if he hasn’t leaned on it heavily. He has also posted a 52.4% whiff rate with the pitch, which makes it a useful weapon if the fastball doesn’t keep taking steps forward.
With September call-ups approaching, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see Duran join the Royals’ bullpen before the season ends. Right now, he may be the second Steven Cruz, but that still leaves Kansas City with two hard-throwing, stuff-heavy relievers who could matter down the line.
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