Royals Just Turned A Bullpen Strength Into A Rotation Debate

Can Daniel Lynch IV transition successfully from relief to the starting rotation, or will his strengths in the bullpen leave the Royals regretting the move?

The Royals have decided to send Daniel Lynch IV back into the rotation, and that choice says plenty about where their pitching staff stands right now.

Lynch had carved out a strong run in relief before this move, putting together a 1.96 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and .185 BAA across 46 innings. In a bullpen that has already dealt with closing chaos tied in large part to Carlos Estévez’s injury and drop in velocity, along with Lucas Erceg’s ugly plummet from grace, Lynch had emerged as the club’s best statistical arm. He looked like a real answer there.

Instead, Kansas City used him to patch the rotation first. That made sense in one way: Lynch is something of a Swiss Army knife, and he had already started earlier in his pro career while coming up through the Royals system. When the team needed a five-man rotation spot filled, he was the obvious name to move.

Still, the bullpen version of Lynch came with some clear limitations. He wasn’t overpowering hitters the way traditional late-inning weapons like Cade Smith, Mason Miller and Jhoan Duran do. His strikeout rate sat at just 6.85 per nine innings, his fastball velocity was average at best, and the chase rate he generated was only mediocre.

What he did bring was balance. Lynch held opponents to 2.35 BB/9, posted strong quality-of-contact numbers that included above-average hard-hit and barrel rates, and kept the ball on the ground more than half the time.

His pitch mix also worked in his favor: three of his five pitches carried a sub-.200 BAA, and two of those offerings - his sinker and slider - are pitches he throws more than 20% of the time. Both also produced sub-.300 SLG marks.

He may not look like the classic ninth-inning stopper, but the profile still had value. Plenty of relievers have made careers without dominant velocity, and with the Royals’ bullpen in rough shape, Lynch was at least a viable option. Given what Kansas City had been rolling out there, he probably wasn’t going to be any worse than the rest of the group trying to handle the ninth.

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Kansas City will remain on the hook for the rest of Martes contract, while any new team would only need to pay the prorated league minimum for the time he spends on its roster. It is a clean example of how the Royals are sorting through their options, trimming a veteran piece and signaling that the focus is on where the outfield goes from here. [Read more 🡒]