The Royals are in Baltimore tonight, and the matchup on the mound has a familiar kind of volatility for Kansas City. Luinder Avila gets the start for the Royals, while Brandon Young takes the ball for the Orioles.
Avila’s run since moving into the rotation after a wave of pitching injuries has been uneven. His 5.04 ERA tells part of the story, but the bigger issue has been a thin 6.2% K-BB%.
He needs more strikeouts and fewer walks, plain and simple. The curveball that used to be his calling card in the system has slipped to his fourth-most-used pitch out of five, and the sinker and slider have been the only offerings he’s handled with much consistency.
Even those pitches haven’t always been easy for him to command, which is why the strike zone has been such a problem. That kind of profile tends to produce streaky results, and Avila has fit that pattern.
If he wants a long career like teammates Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo, the easiest path may be a move to the bullpen, where things could be simplified. For now, though, the Royals are already leaning on Randy Dobnak as a bulk reliever, so Avila remains in the rotation.
Young is a less familiar name, but his profile lines up with Avila’s in a lot of ways. The Orioles right-hander works with a splitter rather than a changeup, and he’s been a little better at locating it in the zone, which has helped him draw more chase when he misses off the plate.
He also leans much more heavily on his four-seam fastball than Avila does. Even with lower velocity and spin, that pitch has shown far more movement, which has helped keep hitters from barreling it up.
The two pitchers even carry the same xwOBA, though Young has likely benefited from better fortune. The biggest edge for Young is control, since he has walked far fewer batters.
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The bullpen is where that pressure feels loudest, because it has become the easiest place to imagine a reset. Michael Wacha has also been part of the conversation, adding another layer to a deadline that could shape how aggressively the Royals try to reshape the roster, and how much they are willing to listen if offers start coming in for veterans. [Read more 🡒]