KANSAS CITY -- The Royals got the win Wednesday night, but Seth Lugo’s final outing of 2026 offered another harsh reminder of how far his season drifted off course.
Lugo gave up four runs in 3 1/3 innings against the White Sox at Kauffman Stadium, closing out a year that ended with a 5.17 ERA, the worst qualified mark in the Major Leagues. Arizona’s Merrill Kelly, at 4.94, was the only other qualified pitcher above 4.61. For a Royals club that believed Lugo would be a central part of its 2027 rotation, that number lands hard.
The right-hander’s season didn’t just wobble late. It unraveled over time.
He opened with a 2.68 ERA across his first seven starts, then finished with a 6.01 ERA over his last 25 outings, covering 128 2/3 innings. Wednesday’s third inning was a snapshot of the problems that kept piling up, as Lugo worked through a 33-pitch frame that ended with four runs crossing the plate.
“Frustration,” Lugo said of his season. “I think a lot of guys here are frustrated.
Obviously didn’t make the playoffs. … But at the same time, stayed healthy and made every start this year.
That’s something to be proud of and something to carry into the offseason.”
That durability mattered in a rotation battered by injuries to Cole Ragans, Kris Bubic, Ryan Bergert, Stephen Kolek and Luinder Avila. But the Royals need more than availability from Lugo.
This season, he was uncharacteristically missing the zone early in counts, couldn’t make his fastball work the way it had before, and wasn’t getting hitters to chase often enough. His fastball carried a -11 run value, and his 25.6% chase rate sat in the 4th worst percentile.
Opponents were able to wait him out, raise his pitch counts and sit on pitches they could drive.
The Royals committed to Lugo last season, signing him to a two-year extension worth $46 million guaranteed ahead of the Trade Deadline. At the time, he had a 2.95 ERA over 113 innings and was coming off a Cy Young Award runner-up finish in 2024.
Instead, the end of his year was brutal: an 8.35 ERA over 32 1/3 innings, capped by an IL placement on Sept. 4.
There’s also more money and more time tied to Lugo. He has an option for 2028 worth another $20 million, and it becomes guaranteed if he throws 162 2/3 innings next season.
In other words, Kansas City may still have Lugo near the top of its payroll for two more years. If the Royals want to get back into contention in 2027, they’ll need him back in form - or they’ll have to spend to reinforce a rotation that has been hit hard by injuries.
“Because he’s done it before,” manager Matt Quatraro said of his confidence that Lugo can rebound next year. “He’s a guy that believes in himself, and he will spend a lot of time figuring out how to fix this.
Not that he hasn’t already, but he’s got the weapons. He’s going to execute more.”
Even with Lugo’s struggles, Wednesday did give the Royals a few reasons to look ahead. Maikel Garcia turned in his best showing since returning from the injured list with a left Grade 1-plus hamstring strain, going 3-for-3 with three RBIs.
And for one night, Kansas City had a lineup with Garcia, Bobby Witt Jr., Jac Caglianone, Vinnie Pasquantino, Salvador Perez and Carter Jensen all in it at once. Every one of them collected a hit.
The clearest positive, though, came from Lucas Erceg. The former Royals closer worked a scoreless eighth inning in a high-leverage spot, his first since being sent to Triple-A Omaha earlier this season because of performance issues.
After using the time down there to sharpen his mentality, mechanics and game plan, Erceg needed only nine pitches to preserve a one-run lead. He also reached triple digits for the first time since the 2024 ALDS.
That matters for a bullpen that has a 5.02 ERA, 29th in MLB, and is expected to go through major changes this offseason. If the Royals are going to get back to meaningful games next September, getting Erceg back on track may be one of the fastest ways to start fixing the mess.
“I was pretty ashamed of myself, pretty embarrassed, to put myself in the position that I did this year,” Erceg said. “I worked hard while I was down there, so to see the surface-level results play in my favor a little bit more, and see that [velocity] creep back up, is nice to see.”
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