Spring training stats can be as unpredictable as a knuckleball, and Kansas City Royals fans know this all too well. Over the years, they've seen many spring standouts fade once the regular season kicks off. It's a reminder that these early numbers often don't tell the full story, especially when the competition varies and sample sizes are small.
Take Aaron Sanchez, for example. The right-handed pitcher is trying to make a comeback to the majors after last pitching in 2022.
While his spring ERA of 2.57 might catch your eye, it's essential to dig deeper. This isn't the same Sanchez who claimed the AL ERA title with a 3.00 mark back in 2016.
Sanchez's journey back to the majors has been anything but straightforward. He last appeared in the big leagues with the Minnesota Twins four years ago and took a break before returning in the Dominican Winter League.
There, he impressed with a 3.8 strikeout-to-walk ratio and even snagged the league's Cy Young equivalent. This performance, coupled with a tryout, led the Royals to offer him a non-roster invite this offseason-a classic "prove-it" scenario for a minor-league free agent.
According to MLB Trade Rumors, Sanchez could earn $1.5 million if he makes the Royals' roster, with potential incentives adding up to $1.35 million. At 33, he still has a shot at more MLB games, but his spring performance hasn't quite sealed the deal for him to start the season with Kansas City.
In 7.0 innings, Sanchez has allowed two runs on six hits, avoiding any disastrous outings. However, the command hasn't been there-he's walked more batters than he's struck out and lacks a decisive putaway pitch.
Over half of the balls hit against him have been classified as hard-hit, with a 52.4% hard-hit rate that would have topped any qualified MLB pitcher last season. His outing on February 22 might have inflated this number, but it underscores the issue.
Sanchez currently relies on his curveball and two fastballs, but with an average velocity below 92 mph, neither fastball stands out. His command is decent, yet he can't afford to linger in the strike zone too often. As the Royals work to build him up as a starter, his current profile doesn't inspire confidence for extended innings in a major league game.
The Royals might still find a way to sharpen Sanchez's curveball or add some life to his fastball. But for those evaluating spring stats and wondering about his Opening Day prospects, it's clear that his ERA doesn't tell the whole story.