The Royals still do not have the outfield bat they set out to find, and Isaac Collins has only sharpened that problem.
Kansas City’s deal with Milwaukee last offseason sent Angel Zerpa to the Brewers in exchange for Collins and Nick Mears, a move meant to help fill an obvious need. It hasn’t come close to doing that.
Zerpa was hurt and needed Tommy John Surgery, Collins has fallen short of expectations, and Mears also underperformed before getting hurt. The Royals wanted impact in the outfield, and they are still looking for it.
Collins’ numbers tell the story of a bat that has backed up across the board. He is hitting .221/.326/.337 with an .662 OPS and an 88 wRC+ this season. That is a clear step back from his 2025 campaign, when he finished fourth in Rookie of the Year voting.
The decline starts with pitch recognition and production. Last year, Collins was at least serviceable against most pitch types, sitting around .240 or better except against changeups.
His best work came against breaking balls, where he hit .284 with a .608 slugging percentage. This season, that has fallen apart.
He is hitting below .200 against breaking pitches, with a slugging percentage under .400.
The details get even more discouraging. In 2025, Collins punished curveballs, sweepers, cutters, and sliders, all with slugging percentages above .550.
This year, his best slugging mark against those pitches is .484 against sliders, with sweepers next at .438. His work against four-seam fastballs has also slipped, as he is hitting .226 against them.
His problems are not limited to pitch results. His swing and take profile shows trouble in the heart and shadow of the zone, where he has values of -15 and -16. In the heart, he is taking pitches 34% of the time, more than the league average of 28%, and he has piled up -12 take runs there.
The shadow of the zone has been just as rough. He is taking 56% of those pitches and swinging 45% of the time, but the swings have not paid off, leaving him with -17 swing runs.
That is a sharp drop from 2025, when he was at -4 in that area. His swing decisions have not been nearly as sharp this year.
Then there is the batted-ball profile, which makes the whole thing even more fragile. Collins is at his best when he hits line drives.
In his career, he has a wRC+ of 379 on line drives. The problem is that he has not produced many of them this season.
His line-drive rate has dropped to 16.5%, down from 24.6% last year. That matters for him more than most hitters, because when he is near league average in that area, he can be a plus bat.
When he is below it, he struggles.
Fly balls have not rescued him either. They are usually a source of extra-base damage for hitters, but for Collins they have been his second-worst batted-ball outcome, with a 79 wRC+ in his career.
This season, he has a 58 wRC+ on fly balls and has put them in play 44.0% of the time. He also has a high infield fly-ball rate of 13.2%, which only adds to the lack of damage.
The issues have not stopped with the bat. Collins was a solid left fielder in Milwaukee in 2025, posting 5 OAA, 2 FRV, and -1 DRS.
In 2026, those marks are -1 OAA, 1 FRV, and 3 DRS. The DRS bump is tied to his ten outfield assists, but the rest of his defensive profile has slipped.
What changed most is his jump on the ball. Baseball Savant says Collins made 2+ star difficulty catches 51.9% of the time in 2025.
This season, that number is down to 33.3%. His jump also went from 3.3 feet better than average last year, fueled by elite reaction, to -0.7 feet versus average in 2026.
So the Royals are left with the same basic question they had before the trade: where is the outfield bat that changes the lineup?
Collins still has some useful traits. He walks a lot, he is a switch-hitter, and his plate discipline remains a real part of his profile.
Kansas City also controls him through 2031. For now, he looks like a fourth outfielder unless he can rediscover some of his 2025 form.
That said, the leash may not be endless. The Royals have other outfielders waiting for a shot at the majors, and those players can step into Collins’ spot if he does not finish strong this year or start well next year.
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