What a Cole Ragans Trade Could Really Look Like - And Why the Royals Should Be Patient
The trade chatter between the Kansas City Royals and Boston Red Sox has been simmering for months, with Jarren Duran’s name consistently floating to the top of the rumor mill. But there’s a sticking point that keeps resurfacing: the Red Sox reportedly want Cole Ragans in return. That’s a big ask - and it’s worth taking a closer look at what a deal involving Ragans and Duran might actually look like, and whether it makes sense for either side.
Let’s break down a few trade scenarios that have been floated, and what they might mean for the Royals.
Scenario 1: A “Fair” Trade - But Is It Worth It?
One of the more balanced proposals making the rounds includes Jarren Duran heading to Kansas City, with the Royals sending back a package centered around Brayan Bello and Garrett Whitlock. On paper, this checks out as a “fair” deal in terms of value. Some versions of this trade even swap out Bello for Payton Tolle, which slightly tips the scales but still keeps things within reason.
Why the Royals might consider it:
Duran would bring speed and energy to the Royals’ outfield - and solve their lingering issues in left field.
He’s under control for three more seasons and has the versatility to slide into center if needed. Bello, while not quite the frontline ace that Ragans is becoming, has been a reliable rotation piece and is under club control for five more years.
Add in Whitlock, who posted an eye-catching 2.2 fWAR in just 72 innings last season, and suddenly the Royals’ bullpen starts to look a lot more dangerous - maybe even evoking shades of that dominant HDH trio from 2015.
Why the Royals might pass:
Here’s the thing - playoff teams usually have at least one ace and one star-level position player.
Without Ragans, Kansas City is banking on bounce-backs from Seth Lugo or a healthy season from Kris Bubic, and those are maybes, not guarantees. Ragans has the kind of upside that’s hard to find and even harder to replace.
Trading him in a deal that feels “fair” on a spreadsheet might not reflect just how valuable he is to the Royals’ future.
There’s also the optics. A year ago, Ragans’ stock was sky-high. Moving him now - especially if the return doesn’t feel like a clear win - could signal a dip in perceived value that just doesn’t match reality.
Scenario 2: The Overpay - Duran and Marcelo Mayer
Now here’s where things get interesting - and a little riskier. This proposal has the Red Sox sending not just Duran, but also top prospect Marcelo Mayer, in exchange for Ragans.
Why the Royals might be tempted:
You’re not just addressing the outfield here - you’re potentially solving the infield, too. Mayer is one of the most talked-about shortstop prospects in the game, and pairing him with Duran could reshape the Royals’ position player core for years.
Why the Royals should think twice:
There are some real concerns with Mayer.
Despite the offensive explosion across Triple-A last season, Mayer managed just a 113 wRC+ in 43 games. His brief MLB stint wasn’t much better - an 80 wRC+ before a wrist injury shut him down.
He’s struggled with breaking balls, and while his defense at shortstop is highly regarded, he wouldn’t be playing that position in Kansas City. That limits his value.
There’s also a fit issue. Mayer is another left-handed bat, and the Royals already lean heavily in that direction. Adding both Duran and Mayer could create some lineup imbalance.
And here’s the kicker - you’re still losing your ace. Mayer might carry more “future value” than someone like Kristian Campbell (who we’ll get to in a minute), but that’s based on the assumption that Mayer’s injury issues don’t linger and that his bat develops. That’s a lot of “ifs” for a deal that would cost you one of the best young left-handers in the game.
Scenario 3: The Realistic Blockbuster - Two Top Bats for One Ace
This is where things start to feel more aligned with Ragans’ actual value. In this version, Duran isn’t even part of the trade - because frankly, he’s not a strong enough centerpiece to headline a deal for a pitcher of Ragans’ caliber. Instead, the Red Sox would need to part with two of their best young hitters, like Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell, both of whom are not only highly regarded prospects but also under team-friendly extensions.
Why the Royals should do this:
This is the kind of return that makes you sit up straight.
Anthony and Campbell would immediately address the Royals’ two biggest needs - outfield and infield - and give them long-term solutions at both spots. These aren’t just lottery tickets; they’re polished young players with upside and cost control.
Add in Whitlock to solidify the bullpen, and suddenly you’ve got a roster that’s deeper, more dangerous, and built to compete well beyond just next season.
Losing Ragans would still hurt - there’s no sugarcoating that - but this kind of trade gives Kansas City the flexibility to go out and sign a frontline starter in free agency. If they feel confident in their ability to develop or fix a guy like Zac Gallen, they might not even have to break the bank.
Why the Red Sox might hesitate:
Trading away two young, controllable players who’ve already committed to your franchise is never easy - especially when they’re rookies or sophomores.
But if Boston is serious about adding a top-of-the-rotation arm with years of control, this is the price. Ragans isn’t just a rental; he’s a potential ace entering his prime.
Deals like that don’t come cheap.
Bottom Line: The Royals Hold the Cards
If this exercise shows us anything, it’s that Cole Ragans isn’t going anywhere unless the return is massive - and it should be. The Royals don’t need to be in a rush. They’ve got a potential ace under control, and unless a team like the Red Sox is willing to pay a premium, there’s no reason to move him.
So, should Royals fans be worried about Ragans getting traded? Not really.
Either Kansas City keeps their ace, or they get a haul that reshapes the roster in a big way. That’s the kind of win-win position you want to be in - and it’s a sign that the front office understands just how valuable Ragans has become.