Jac Caglianone's rookie season might have been a rough ride, but he's showing signs of a breakout that's hard to ignore. After a .532 OPS debut year, the Royals' outfielder is making waves this spring with some jaw-dropping performances. Smashing three balls over 115 mph, including a scorching 120.2 mph hit, Caglianone is resetting expectations in a big way.
His stint with Team Italy at the World Baseball Classic has been nothing short of impressive. With a .364/.563/.727 slash line, a homer, four RBIs, and five runs scored over four games, he's been a key player in Italy's journey to the semifinals. This resurgence is a reminder of why he was the No. 6 overall Draft pick in 2024, despite a rookie season that saw him hit just .157.
Historically, rookies with such struggles rarely turn into All-Stars. Only nine players since 1969 have done it after posting an OPS+ of 50 or lower.
Yet, Caglianone seems poised to defy those odds. Here's why.
Raw Talent on Display
Caglianone's raw power is undeniable. Max exit velocity is a stat that speaks volumes, and hitting a ball at 120 mph isn't something you stumble upon.
It requires elite bat speed, strength, and precision. Only a handful of players, like Giancarlo Stanton and Oneil Cruz, have reached such heights in the Statcast era.
Standing at 6-foot-4 and 250 pounds, Caglianone fits the mold of a power hitter. His swing, both violent and compact, generates extreme bat speeds, averaging 77.4 mph last season. This ranked him eighth fastest in the Majors, a testament to his potential as a power hitter.
Laying the Groundwork for Power
Despite his low OPS, Caglianone's underlying stats tell a different story. His contact quality was promising, with a high ground-ball rate and occasional whiffs.
However, when he got the ball in the air, it was a different game. Among players with at least 150 batted balls in 2025, Caglianone ranked tenth in average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives.
He also recorded 19 barrels, with a 12% barrel rate that would have placed him around the 75th percentile if he had enough plate appearances. For a 23-year-old, these numbers lay a solid foundation for future success.
A Misleading Rookie Year
Caglianone's rookie stats might not tell the whole story. His expected stats, which consider the quality of contact, suggest he was one of the unluckiest hitters in the league. He had the largest gap between expected and actual production in several categories, indicating that his struggles weren't entirely reflective of his potential.
While turning potential into production is on Caglianone, his defense remains a work in progress. Transitioning from a first baseman and pitcher in college to an outfielder, he's still finding his footing in right field. In 2025, he posted a significant deficit in defensive success rate, highlighting an area for improvement.
As the 2026 season unfolds, all eyes will be on Caglianone to see if he can translate these promising signs into consistent performance. If he does, the Royals might have a star in the making.