Bobby Witt Jr. is headed for another strong finish in the American League MVP race, but this season may have exposed the one thing that can keep him from turning elite production into hardware: the Royals’ record.
The 26-year-old shortstop has already piled up three top-10 MVP finishes, including a fourth-place and a second-place showing, and he’s putting together another monster year. As of September 24, Witt owns a 6.7 fWAR, the best mark among AL players, and his 6.5 bWAR ranks third.
That kind of production usually puts a player right at the center of the MVP conversation. In fact, since 2021, the AL leader in fWAR has gone on to win the award each year.
If that pattern held, Witt would be in line to take it. But nobody is really forecasting that outcome.
Part of the problem is that Witt’s rise has overlapped with the peak years of Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge, which has already cost him a few potential MVP runs. This year, though, the issue is different.
There isn’t a runaway favorite separating from the pack. Instead, Witt’s biggest obstacle is team context, and the Royals haven’t helped him there.
That’s where the MVP math gets tricky. Players on losing teams have won the award before, but usually only when their numbers tower over everyone else’s.
Ohtani’s 2021 win came with the 77-85 Angels, but he still finished 1.4 fWAR ahead of second place. Mike Trout won in 2016 on a 74-88 Angels team while holding a 1.3-fWAR edge.
Alex Rodriguez took home the 2003 award on a 71-91 Rangers club with a 1.8-fWAR cushion. Witt, by contrast, is only 0.1 fWAR ahead of Yordan Alvarez in second.
When the stats are that close, the conversation shifts. Team success starts to matter more.
Playoff contention matters more. Impact on winning matters more.
And in Witt’s case, the Royals are already out of playoff contention while the Houston Astros could still win their division.
There’s no question Witt has the tools to win MVP someday. His bat and defense give him a profile most teams would dream of.
But as long as Kansas City sits outside the race while other stars keep producing close enough to stay in the mix, the path gets harder. If the Royals stay uncompetitive during his prime, his chances will shrink.
If they get into the playoffs, he could wind up collecting multiple MVPs.
In Other News...
Royals Waste A Special Night Fans Wont Soon Forget
Denny Matthews reached a remarkable milestone at Kauffman Stadium on a night built for appreciation, calling his 8,000th career game in the ballpark where he has long been part of the Royals identity. The organization marked the occasion with signage, fan tributes and a salute from the dugout, turning a regular home date into a celebration of one of the most familiar voices in franchise history.
Carter Jensen helped give the evening real juice, with the rookie catcher launching two home runs and setting a rookie catcher record for extra-base hits. But the Royals could not finish the job, as the bullpen surrendered five runs in the ninth inning in a 12-9 loss to the Guardians, leaving a special night with a sour ending. [Read more 🡒]
Carter Jensen Is Turning Royals Rookie Of The Year Talk Real
Carter Jensen has gone from intriguing call-up to one of the most compelling stories on the Royals roster, and the production has been loud enough to make the Rookie of the Year conversation feel more and more legitimate. The rookie catcher has piled up milestones at a pace that is rare for any player, let alone one handling the demands of catching while also spending time in the leadoff spot.
Jensen has already set the franchise mark for home runs by a rookie and moved past Mike Piazza for the most extra-base hits by a rookie catcher since 1947, all while leading Kansas City in RBIs. He also sits near the top of the American League rookie leaderboard in several offensive categories, which leaves the Royals with a pretty interesting question as the season goes on: how far can this kind of two-way workload carry him, and how much noise can he make in the awards race if it keeps up? [Read more 🡒]
Royals Final Weekend Has One Breakout Story Fans Need To See
Noah Camerons last start of the year was a rough one, with Cleveland tagging him for seven runs, six earned, over five innings, but the Royals still had plenty else to talk about in the final weekend. Carter Jensen, meanwhile, turned the spotlight onto himself with a two-homer showing that added to a breakout stretch and put his name in the record book, with franchise and MLB rookie catcher marks for extra-base hits and home runs now attached to the young backstop.
The broader weekend also carried plenty of significance beyond the box score. Denny Matthews is set to call his 8,000th game behind the Royals microphone, a staggering milestone for a voice that has defined the franchise for generations, and Bobby Witt Jr. was named the clubs nominee for the Roberto Clemente Award, a reminder that the seasons final chapter still has room for both achievement and recognition. [Read more 🡒]