The Kansas City Chiefs are heading into Week 15 with a 6-7 record and a critical divisional matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers on deck. For a team that’s used to sitting atop the AFC standings this time of year, this season has been anything but business as usual.
One of the biggest shifts from last year? The Chiefs’ magic in close games has disappeared.
In 2022, Kansas City went a perfect 11-0 in one-possession games-a remarkable stat that helped fuel their playoff run. This season, they’re just 1-6 in those same situations.
That’s not just bad luck; it’s a reflection of a team that’s been battling through injuries, inconsistency, and a troubling case of the drops from their receiving corps.
But let’s be clear: this isn’t on Patrick Mahomes.
The two-time MVP is still playing at an elite level, even if the win-loss column doesn’t show it. Through 13 games, Mahomes has completed 63.1% of his passes for 3,398 yards-third in the NFL.
He’s thrown 22 touchdowns against 10 interceptions and holds a quarterback rating of 69.4, which ranks fourth in the league. And he’s doing more with his legs than ever before, rushing for a career-high 407 yards and four touchdowns on 62 carries.
Mahomes’ numbers stack up with the league’s best, but MVP conversations don’t happen in a vacuum. The reality is, voters tend to reward quarterbacks who are leading winning teams. And with the Chiefs currently outside the playoff picture, Mahomes has slid out of serious MVP contention.
Earlier in the season, there was still a case to be made. At the midpoint, Mahomes wasn’t leading any one stat category outright, but he was near the top across the board.
He was tied for the league lead in cumulative EPA (expected points added), and his ability to extend plays and create on the move continued to be a major part of his value. He was carrying more of the offensive load than many of his MVP rivals, even those with flashier efficiency numbers.
But the Chiefs’ recent slide has made it tough to keep his name in the mix. Sunday night’s loss to the Texans was a low point-by Total QBR, it was the third-worst start of Mahomes’ career, checking in at just 19.6. That game, like several others this season, was marred by dropped passes and missed opportunities.
In fact, Mahomes has dealt with the second-most drops in the NFL this year, a stat that doesn’t always show up in the box score but has a huge impact on drives, red zone efficiency, and ultimately, wins. His scrambling ability has helped keep the offense afloat, and it’s factored into his QBR, but without more consistent help around him, even Mahomes can’t carry this team to the finish line alone.
Could a strong final four games-paired with a surprise playoff push-put him back in the MVP race? Absolutely.
If Mahomes catches fire and the Chiefs sneak into the postseason, the conversation might shift again. But as things stand, with Kansas City on the outside looking in, Mahomes is likely to be watching the MVP ceremony from home this year.
Still, make no mistake: Mahomes is playing like one of the best quarterbacks in football. He just hasn’t had the support-or the wins-to match.