The Chiefs took a hard fall a year ago, but oddsmakers aren’t ready to treat them like a broken team.
Kansas City’s 6-11 finish and first missed postseason in more than a decade would normally push a franchise into the middle tier of preseason expectations. Not here. For 2026, the Chiefs are still being priced like a team that belongs in the contender conversation, with their win total set at 10.5.
That number ties them for the second-highest projection heading into the new season. Only the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Rams are rated higher, both sitting at 11.5.
The Ravens’ spot on that list stands out after their own sub-.500 season, especially with a new head coach in Jesse Minter. Still, the market is clearly willing to give both Baltimore and Kansas City the benefit of the doubt.
The Chiefs’ number says a lot about how much weight their recent run still carries. From 2019 to 2024, they played in five of six Super Bowls, and oddsmakers seem unwilling to toss that out after one ugly year. Even with doubts about a roster that could be viewed as top-loaded, thin on proven depth, and leaning on more Patrick Mahomes magic as he comes back from torn knee ligaments, Kansas City remains firmly in the mix.
The Rams’ elevated outlook is easier to explain. The source of that optimism is a major secondary upgrade, and the outlook only gets brighter with Aaron Donald and Matthew Stafford back at the center of things. The report also notes that a blockbuster trade for Trent McDuffie and the signing of Jaylen Watson left Kansas City without its two best pass defenders.
The 10.5 win total puts the Chiefs in a crowded group. Last year’s Super Bowl winners, the Seattle Seahawks, are there, along with the reigning AFC champs, the New England Patriots. The Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals join them on the AFC side, while the Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles share that same line in the NFC.
At the other end of the board, the Arizona Cardinals and Miami Dolphins are tied for the lowest projection at 4.5 wins apiece. The concerns there are straightforward: quarterback questions and a roster that the report describes as light on talent. Both are being viewed as teams that could be in the mix for the top pick in the 2027 NFL Draft next April.
In the AFC West, Kansas City still sits on top of the preseason numbers. The Chiefs’ 10.5 total is just one win ahead of the Denver Broncos, who won the division last year, and the L.A.
Chargers. The Las Vegas Raiders, meanwhile, are set at 5.5 with Fernando Mendoza stepping in as the starting quarterback.
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