The Dallas Cowboys just sent a jolt through the NFL landscape - and they did it by taking down Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. In a game that flipped expectations on their head, Dallas didn’t just hang with the defending AFC champs - they outplayed them. And with that Thanksgiving Day statement, the playoff picture suddenly looks a whole lot different for both teams.
Let’s be clear: this wasn’t supposed to happen. Kansas City came into the game riding high after a clutch win over the Colts, a victory that seemed to signal they’d found their rhythm again.
Meanwhile, Dallas was trending in the right direction, but few expected them to go toe-to-toe with Mahomes and come out on top. Yet here we are - with the Cowboys very much back in the playoff conversation, and the Chiefs facing the very real possibility of missing the postseason altogether.
So, where do things stand now? Let’s break down the playoff outlook for both teams, using three major predictive models to get a sense of what’s next.
Cowboys: A Pulse in the NFC Playoff Race
For Dallas, the win over Kansas City is more than just a morale boost - it’s a lifeline. According to FTN’s DVOA model (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), the Cowboys now have a 17% chance to make the playoffs. That includes a 9.5% shot at winning the NFC East - a division that’s been up for grabs thanks to inconsistent play across the board.
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) is slightly more optimistic, giving the Cowboys an 18% chance to reach the postseason. That includes a 10% chance of winning the division and hosting a Wild Card game. And while their Super Bowl odds sit at just 1%, the fact that Dallas is even in the conversation again is notable considering where they were a few weeks ago.
The Athletic’s model, led by Austin Mock, is the most bullish on Dallas. It gives the Cowboys a 23% chance to make the playoffs, with a 10% shot at taking the division.
Their Super Bowl odds remain under 1%, but again - this is a team that looked out of the race not long ago. Now, they’re very much alive.
So what’s changed? Well, the Cowboys have rattled off three straight wins - and not just against any teams.
They’ve taken down both of last season’s Super Bowl participants (Kansas City and Philadelphia), and handled the Raiders with authority. The offense is finding its rhythm, and the defense is making timely plays.
It’s not just about the wins - it’s how they’re winning. Fast starts, aggressive play-calling, and a defense that’s forcing turnovers at key moments.
That’s a formula that can keep them in the hunt, even if the odds are still long.
Chiefs: From Contenders to Question Marks
On the flip side, things are getting uncomfortably tight for the Chiefs. FTN’s DVOA model still gives them a 46.2% chance to make the playoffs - better than Dallas, but far from the lock we’re used to seeing in Kansas City.
Their odds of winning the AFC West? Just 2%.
That means their most likely path is through the Wild Card round, and likely as a road team.
ESPN’s FPI is even more cautious, giving the Chiefs a 41% shot at the postseason. Like FTN, it gives them a 2% chance to win the division.
But here’s the kicker: if they do make the playoffs, ESPN still gives them a 9% chance to win the Super Bowl. That tells you everything you need to know about how dangerous this team can be when they’re firing on all cylinders.
The Athletic’s model is the least optimistic of the three, putting Kansas City’s playoff odds at 37%, with - you guessed it - a 2% chance of taking the AFC West. Their Super Bowl chances?
Just 2%. That’s a steep drop for a team that’s been a fixture in January football for the better part of the last decade.
So what’s going on in Kansas City? The short answer: inconsistency.
The offense hasn’t looked like the well-oiled machine we’re used to. Mahomes is still doing Mahomes things - buying time, making magic on the run - but he’s had to carry more than his fair share.
The defense, which was expected to be solid, has struggled to find its footing. And with the Broncos suddenly surging and the AFC Wild Card race packed with contenders, the margin for error is razor-thin.
It’s worth noting that Kansas City hasn’t made major changes to its roster - and that might be part of the problem. The continuity that once gave them an edge now feels a bit stale. And while their championship pedigree means they’ll always be a threat in the postseason, they’ve got to get there first.
What’s Next?
For Dallas, the path is still tough - but not impossible. They’ll need to keep stacking wins, and they’ll likely need some help in the form of stumbles from division rivals. But with momentum on their side and a defense that’s starting to look like a difference-maker, they’ve got a puncher’s chance.
As for Kansas City, the road ahead is filled with landmines. They’ve got to find consistency - fast.
The offense needs to click, the defense needs to tighten up, and Mahomes needs help. The good news?
If they do sneak into the playoffs, no one’s going to want to face them. The bad news?
That’s a big “if” right now.
We’re heading into the stretch run of the season, and both teams are at critical crossroads. For the Cowboys, it’s about proving their recent run is more than just a hot streak.
For the Chiefs, it’s about rediscovering the identity that made them perennial contenders. One team is rising, one is reeling - and the playoff picture just got a whole lot more interesting.