Chiefs’ Fourth-Down Gamble Backfires - And Leaves Questions About Kareem Hunt’s Absence
On Sunday night, the Kansas City Chiefs made one of the boldest fourth-down calls of Andy Reid’s career. It was fourth-and-1 from their own 31-yard line - deep in their own territory, in a defensive slugfest, with their playoff hopes hanging by a thread.
The play was drawn up to spring Hollywood Brown into the flat. Instead, it unraveled before it had a chance to breathe.
The Texans weren’t fooled. Edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. read it like a headline, crashing into the passing lane and blowing up the design before Patrick Mahomes could get the ball out.
Mahomes scrambled, tried to salvage the play by targeting Rashee Rice, but Derek Stingley Jr. was all over it. Incomplete.
Turnover on downs.
The Texans took over, and the Chiefs’ postseason odds took a hit they couldn’t afford.
Reid stood by the decision after the game and again the next day, saying, “I would probably do the same thing again.” That may sound surprising after a failed gamble, but Reid’s philosophy is rooted in process over outcome - a mindset that’s served him well over the years.
But here’s the thing: the issue wasn’t necessarily the decision to go for it. It was how they went for it.
Let’s dig into the “how.”
A Familiar Design, Missing a Familiar Piece
The Chiefs ran a similar play just a week earlier - a fourth-and-1 in Dallas. That time, Mahomes hit tight end Jared Wiley in the flat after a play fake that froze the defense.
The fake? It went to Kareem Hunt.
And that made all the difference.
Against the Cowboys, Hunt lined up in the backfield, and the fake to him was convincing enough to pull all three linebackers downhill. That hesitation created the space Wiley needed to convert. It was a simple, effective use of misdirection - and it worked because Hunt has become one of the most feared short-yardage backs in football this season.
Now fast-forward to Sunday night. Hunt was on the field - but not where you’d expect him. Seven seconds before the snap, the Chiefs motioned him out of the backfield and lined him up tight on the left side, more as a pseudo-tight end than a threat to carry the ball.
That’s where the confusion starts.
The Hunt Factor: Why Wasn’t He the Focal Point?
Let’s be clear: Kareem Hunt has been a fourth-down wrecking ball this season. He’s carried the ball 11 times on fourth-and-1 - more than any other running back in the league - and converted 10 of them.
That’s a 91% success rate. Defenses know it’s coming.
They stack the box. They guess right.
And it still doesn’t matter.
Even earlier in the same game, Hunt had three short-yardage carries. The result?
Three first downs and a touchdown. On the touchdown run, the Texans met him in the backfield.
He powered through anyway. That’s what he does.
He doesn’t just move the chains - he moves the pile.
So if the Texans were expecting Hunt on fourth-and-1, so what? They’ve expected him all season, and he’s still delivered. That’s what makes his absence from the backfield - even as a decoy - so puzzling.
If the Chiefs believed the Texans would sell out to stop Hunt, why not use that expectation against them? That’s exactly what they’ve done before.
Twice this season, they used play-action fakes to Hunt on fourth-and-short and completed passes to wide-open receivers. The defense bit hard both times.
Both plays worked.
Here’s the full breakdown of the Chiefs’ fourth-and-1 decisions this year:
- 11 times: Handed it to Hunt. **10 conversions. **
- 1 time: Threw it to Hunt. **Converted.
**
- 2 times: Used Hunt as a decoy in the backfield.
**Both passes completed. **
- 2 times: Hunt wasn’t on the field or wasn’t involved. **Both failed.
**
That’s 14 plays with Hunt involved - 13 successful. Two without him - 0-for-2.
The numbers don’t lie. When Hunt is part of the equation, the Chiefs convert fourth-and-1 at a 92.9% clip.
When he’s not, they’re 0-for-2. That’s not a coincidence.
That’s a trend.
The Process vs. the Play Call
Reid defended the decision, saying, “I thought we had a good play.” And to his credit, the Chiefs have been one of the NFL’s best fourth-down teams this season. Even after Sunday’s misfire, they’re still converting over 75% of their fourth-down attempts - tops in the league.
So the decision to go for it? No issue there. Aggressiveness has become a staple of Reid’s coaching identity, and Mahomes gives you every reason to believe you can get one yard when it matters most.
But the play call - that’s where this gets murky.
If you’re going to roll the dice on fourth-and-1 deep in your own territory, in a low-scoring game, in a must-win situation, why not lean on the guy who’s been your most reliable short-yardage weapon all year? Or at the very least, use him as a decoy to draw the defense’s eyes and open something up elsewhere?
Instead, Hunt was lined up out wide, and the Texans weren’t fooled. They sniffed it out, shut it down, and slammed the door on a drive the Chiefs couldn’t afford to waste.
What It Means Moving Forward
The Chiefs are still a dangerous team, and Reid’s confidence in his process isn’t misplaced. But Sunday’s fourth-down failure wasn’t just about being aggressive - it was about execution and personnel. And when you have a weapon like Kareem Hunt who thrives in these exact situations, it’s hard to justify keeping him out of the action.
The Chiefs didn’t lose because they went for it. They lost because they didn’t play to their strengths when they did.
And that’s a lesson they can’t afford to relearn if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive.